1. BE THERE FIRST
2. ASTROLOGERS FUND CONFERENCE
3. T, NCR, & DISNEY.
4. QUIZ
5. LETTERS
1. Our Trading motto is: Be there first". Sometimes of course, we have to wait. It was obvious to me in February that the Tech stocks momentum plays were peaking. Of course that may take until the Next astrological Jupiter/Saturn theme in May 2000 to reach the cover of Time magazine. So we have plenty of time to play in between if Wintell takes at 288 1/2 which it may this week. None-the-less we will be playing selective July puts. Whether July is down due to Alan Greenspan, Hong Kong, Earnings Disappointments, Disney, Clinton, Oil or just too much bear capitulation, there will be some profitable short trades - be-it quite SHORT (in time) or not. Was very much surprised the the only two down days in a row since April 25- moved down so little. Tuesday we will how/if 7350 is taken out on closing basis. Patience prevails.
2. May 15-17, 1998 on the 206th NYSE birthday, we have our 6th annual conference. The start of a new 5 year series, these will highlight investor/broker days of due diligence which includes financial astrology, naturally. Favorite tidbit/advice to beginning traders from Richard Mogey: Until you learn how to place stops so you don't get stopped out of winning trades before going broke: I placed my early stops at the point I could show my trading record to my wife without causing a family fight.
3. T (ATT) has quickly appreciated 15% in less than a month. So if you are bear going forward, you may wish to place a stop circa 35 and then trail up. My inclination is it will not take out 39 even in a bull market run to 7600. NCR shorts are still profitable (if you didn't take your profit the first time), however don't let it get past 31 (or take an option loss- a cardinal sin in trading: to let a profit turn into a loss. As to Disney, it has yet to take out 85 to be way off for June/July. But this is still an open play.
4. Four categories of market participants are NEVER wrong about the markets. Guess all four and win a prize. Hint: Astrologers are NOT one of the four.
5. Comments optimism still rising - what can beat it?? >>
HW: Optimism :) Then the put-call ratio will change and the market would drop!
I am new to this page. Is there a good bear market fund that does not require a large initial inflow of cash? One that could be recommended? >>
HW: Rydex Ura (RYURX) shorts the S & P Index and Rydex Juno (RYJUX) short the 30-year bond market. The latter I would hold for a month or two at most, at which point I am a Bond Bull. As to shorting the S & P itself, while unsucessful as a buy hold strategy say for 25 years, if can be profitable in selected time frames, and we naturally approve.
Correct me if I am wrong, but the stars don't say "We have a stock market crash coming" - they are going to indicate places in time that people will be very susceptible to mood swings, or negative energy, or they will fear more stuff a specific set of days.
HW: Yes quite correct in my view.
Wall Street, Next Week subscriptions $300 per year.
1. FULL MOON LINE IN THE SAND
2. 1997 MIDYEAR REPORT
3. GOLD
4. LETTERS
1. Our latest line in the sand was issued before press 5/21 with the market at 7350. Quite a decent trade almost immediately. However, whether it holds as the second top of the year remains to be seen. As Susan said: "Let's Hope." If not, we regroup for July and in either case, advise all to be more stock, rather than market specific in trading the short-intermediate term.
2. If you are a subscriber to WSNW, you should have received our mid-year report we issued at our 5th Annual Astrology and Stock Market Conference. If not, or you wish to subscribe, email me. This will be posted June 1 on our website.
3. MAY 20 WSNW GOLD Alert
"WHY NOT BUY GOLD [June 343.40] OR GOLD INSTRUMENTS TODAY?" We continue to recommend some buying of Gold and Gold stocks in the 340-360 range for market disaster insurance. While there will be steady central bank selling to keep gold under $400, we believe the XAU will outperform INDEXING for the next six months. This is also a good dollar hedge or short. Longer term consider BASE metals as well e.g. Copper and PD (Phelps Dodge), aluminum and AA (Alcoa) etc."
4.Having a great time reading all of this, but must say it sure seems wacky and far-fetched. How wrong can you get? If you keep saying the same thing though, sooner or later it will happen, no matter what you are saying.
HW: You think I am a "broken clock." Not so, remember the US market call is just of many. Still it is possible I will not call it because
a) it won't happen, the markets will go up forever or
b) it is not is my horoscope
However, I will keep trying, as the risk/reward is increasing all the time. But this is a traders mentality 4 u. As to the investment side, our global selections e.g. Japan usually outperform the US equivalent.
I enjoy reading your newsletter, Thanks for sending it my way.
HW: Thank you. Of course to receive it in real time you need to subscribe. However we will continue delayed posting on our web site and will do monthly emails to our general list.
Henry, I personally hope that you are not correct, but, I also would like to see econo-astrological forecasting vindicated. However, since the large cap stocks are a safer haven, you will see a rotation into the index funds while the small caps are taking it in the wazoo which is what probably occurred today. We are very close to the 66% Finonacci retracement on the DOW. If it moves up from here, then all hell will break loose on the upside. If not, then we could easily retest this month's lows.
I personally do not see a market crash ala 1929 or 1987. Both of these crashes were the swan songs of their respective Kondratioff cycles. The 1929 crash was the swan song of the railroad industry and the 1987 crash was the swan song of the Military-Industrial Complex industry. We are now 10 years into the telecomm industry 60 year cycle. Furthermore, technological innovation is occurring at an exponential rate. It is the innovation and resultant productivity increases which is the underlying cause of this Nirvana Market (growth with little inflation).
Furthermore, most of the market research studies have shown that most mutual funds investors are in it for the long haul. There was little panic movement out of funds during the past month's correction. Maybe, this market has finally gotten rational. The "irrational exuberance" that Alan talked about last December, might be out of the market. This is good. I would rather see a non-speculative market with slow steady growth. Since I play index options entirely, I can still make a 300 to 900% annual return when the market grows only 10 percent yearly
HW: RATIONAL MARKET? I FIND THAT HARD TO BELIEVE! IN FOR THE LONG HAUL? LET'S SEE IF INVESTORS DO SO, IF/WHEN A CORRECTION COMES. REALLY IF THERE IS NO CORRECTION UNTIL 1999/2000, THEN WE MAY GET AN ALBANIA-STYLE PROBLEM AS THE BABY BOOMERS REMOVE FUNDS CIRCA 2010. NO, A HEALTHY CORRECTION IS HEALTHY AND GOOD FOR ALL, IMHO.
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