May 14th Wall Street, Next Week

1. ONE UNHAPPY, ONE HAPPY BEAR DAY?

2. LETTERS

1. Whether our latest short term view on the US market turns out to be right or wrong, "problem" Mondays May 5 and 12th were well forecast. Today's PPI news is hardly believable. Just today when my coffee and low fat muffin breakfast went up from $2.00 to $2.05, and my wife informs me a fine couture dress would cost her $100,000, I am to believe there was a drop of 0.6% in PPI inflation? NAH! Today could be a DCD (damage control day) rather than a cause of celebration: Still have tomorrow's numbers and I am pinning our last (latest) hope on Wednesday/Thursday May 21/22 for a real market CRASH day? i.e -250+ DIJA?????

2. It does not appear that market is poised for a 1000 point fall now!! Dow is up 80 points.. already on 8th May (11:30A.M.) Very likely an explosive rise upto end of June.. check Jupiter conj Natal Pluto trine natal Jupiter of NYSE chart. IBM will go above 200!

HW: well IBM does have a good horoscope for the next year. Unless the market muddles up May 14 and 22. Then we look forward to July and September.

<< I'm glad that you're becoming more objective.

HW: Does that mean you agree with my views? The market is wrong not as often?

<< DO contrarians make money in this market? I just sufferred thorugh some technology stock declines...but at present my OIL (Ranger and SLB) are UP and Lucent is also up considerably. I am tempted to take my profit and run...but I think it's a little premature. I anticipate some good buying opportunities this summer. Hope all is well with you. >>

HW: Well LU is the one of THE best, still not a bad idea to use a stop-profit. Tight or loose trailing depending on whether you are a bear or bull.

Dear Henry , I have some comments about your Bearishness.

1) I am not an Astrologer but what I have learnt is that when a planet like Mercury goes retrogade it influences the markets, E.G. from positive to negative and vice versa. On April 14 the markets were down 10%, so the positive move afterwards was very logically.

HW: YES THAT IS MOST OFTEN TRUE, BUT THERE ARE ALWAYS MORE THAN ONE CONSIDERATION; OF COURSE HINDSIGHT IS ALWAYS 100%.

2)As fundamental observer I must recognize that companies like Intel, GE and IBM are not that expensive after all. So unless you see something very bad in their horoscope I do not understand why you would short them unless because you want to persist in your strategy.

HW: PERHAPS...IBM HOROSCOPE STILL VERY GOOD FOR THIS/NEXT YEAR. GE OK AND WINTEL (MICROSOFT/INTEL) I AM HAPPY TO SAY IS PAST ITS PEAK OF 288 1/2. GUESS IT DEPENDS ON WHAT YOU CONSIDER REASONABLE PRICING.

3) Disney only goes up(2.8% today) , where is the bad you saw in the horoscope, maybe Disney's horoscope was worse than others, but as threat of market correction is over I do not see any reason to short this stock, unless you want to be right.

HW: WELL THERE IS STILL JUNE; WE TALKED ABOUT DECEMBER, MARCH AND JUNE FOR DISNEY. I WILL GIVE NEW MARKET VIEWS FOR NEXT 6 MONTHS AT May 17 CONFERENCE.

4) I think PPI this wednesday could be bad, so maybe a down day, but on the 15th markets should rally again as CPI will be low. The same for next week, no hard Astrological aspects, rate increase unlikely, so the only way is UP!

HW: THIS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND NEXT FULL MOON, COULD BE BIG BIG DOWN DAYS..... IF NOT, WELL THEN JUST PLAIN WRONG (THIS TIME).

5)Astrologically the next hard aspects are from september on, like other cyclist see a low between september 1997 and February 1998.

YES AGREE WITH THAT, ALTHOUGH JULY THE BONDS MAY EFFECT THE MARKETS QUITE NEGATIVELY.

CONCLUSION: CHANGE YOUR OPINION AND ADMIT THAT WE COULD HAVE A STRONG RALLY BEFORE A BIG BIG CRASH. OR I AM WRONG?

HW: NO IF NOT DOWN IN THIS PERIOD- 15 DAYS, I AM WRONG AND CONVENTIONAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RIGHT ABOUT THE INTERMEDIATE TERM PICTURE AND WE JUST GOT MANY OF THE SINGLE BIG DAY MOVES RIGHT....

I PREFER TO QUIT ALL MY PUT POSITIONS AND BUY SOME CALLS. HW: YOU SHOULD TAKE WHATEVER POSITIONS YOU THINK WILL MAKE THE MOST MONEY. BY THE WAY OUR JAPAN LONGS OUTPERFORMED AND SUGGEST BEGINNING TO SELL SOME OF THEM SHORTLY. I AM STILL WAITING TILL NEXT WEDNESDAY BEFORE CHANGING VIEWS.

The same for IHI, i hope you are not mistaking and just continue to recommend because you want to be right.

HW: I HOPE SO TOO, BUT WE WILL KNOW THIS YEAR FOR SURE...STILL NEWS FROM COMPANY MORE OR LESS ON TARGET REGARDING FACTORY PROGRESS AND NEW CONTRACTS.

Sorry, But I just wanted to say this. Cheers, see you this week, >>

HW: WHY-- ALWAYS BEST TO SAY WHAT YOU THINK....YUP SHOULD BE GREAT!!! SEE YOU THERE.

NEXT TIME UPDATE ON DISNEY, MO AND JAPAN

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May 7 Wall Street, Next Week Part III

1. LATEST CALL

2. PREVIOUS FORECAST ERROR

3. LETTERS

1. Yesterday, May 6 at 9:55 we issued the following call: Sell at 7240 OB; T1 stop 7320/Target 6240. 15 Day countdown re-starting. Markers: Bonds under 109.22 (and declining); IBM under 160. PROBLEM DATES - May 12?

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2. Beginning with our April call, a serious market correction- 250+ DIJA points became possible and for many reasons BIG MOVES WERE POSSIBLE IN EITHER DIRECTION. As we mentioned last time, we could have been one cycle too early OR wrong. The basic error was breaking the cardinal rule of forecasting: not being objective. I knew that if the market did NOT correct in that 15 day period, my March 11th high would be taken out - there were too many power 100+ day moves forecast for that period. For similar reasons, we issued the 1000 point drop call again yesterday in order for the 7200 to hold. That way we could get the ~7240 1997 year high and if wrong, STILL HAD A SUCCESSFUL TRADE (i..e a very, very LOCAL top!).

When making a major forecast, we look to 5 factors: 1. Fundamentals, 2. Technicals, 3. Market Psychology, 4. Market Timing and 5. Geo-Political events.

1. Fundamentals:

a) We did not expect robust company earnings, and reported earnings came in higher than we forecast (but we still consider this old news; future earnings we maintain WILL be lower).

b) We did NOT expect the economic growth factors and inflation numbers to come in as they did. True we were in Mercury RX and Neptune station, but we were HOPING the Sun/Uranus surprises would be negative for the market - they were not.

2. Technicals:

Momentum/Overbought/Oversold/International money flows/Put/Calls These were mostly in our favor, with the exception of the Put/Call ratios. Unfortunately bears were buying too many puts and not selling enough S&P's!

3. Market psychology.

Sentiment indicators were sufficiently negative; mutual flow inflows slowed in March to near the critical $10 billion level. Unfortunately, this provided "the wall of worry" for a 500 point market rise.

4. Market timing : lot of power/pivot days. Could go EITHER way.

5. Geo-political News:

Unfavorable with apparent budget compromise.

Other points:

a) By the second day, the Bonds failed to hold the 107.30 level.

b) Disney news continued to be on the negative side and was ignored.

c) MO slide not as great as forecast. However for the record, was put back on our on potential buy list THE day of the Florida ruling, but then taken off at the end of the day! Not too shabby, eh?

d) When I issued the report, the Dark Moon was rising. I thought this referred to the content of my forecast, not to the accuracy of forecast!

e) Lastly, I hoped Alan Greenspan's astrologer would assist - but Alan was quiet.

3. These are great fun! Thanks,-Neal.

HW: Right, if NOT fun, I am doing it wrong.

Fully admitting that practice makes perfect, mental hygiene demands that we also admit that you were in error in your pick of the topping date for the present bull market. I'm hoping that you can still affirm, with some confidence, your other major prediction for 1997, that IHI will be a good investment. Can you do that? The question is not submitted from a confrontational or challenging attitude, but one of supplication. A response would be considered a great favor and would be received thankfully.

HW: well you must see part III. and the 9:57am/ 240 call issued early today. As to IHI, affirm?? Well I own stock and continue to recommend it to new clients and friends. Is that good enough?

I just read a post on financial astrology and must say that in my new whodunit *1 (900) DEAD* (St. Martin's Press) the heroine's lover is a financial astrologer with a market letter based on cosmic aspects. I just hope no one thinks the guy is actually Henry Weingarten. Tony Fennelly in New Orleans

HW: Tony if he is

1) as GOOD a financial astrologer as ME, AND

2) as GOOD a lover as ME, AND

3) he didn't do it.

I don't mind if people think you modelled him on me! :)

OFF TO FLORIDA FOR A FEW DAYS.

NEXT TIME UPDATE ON DISNEY, MO AND JAPAN

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May 5 Wall Street, Next Week Part II/III

1. FORECAST REVISION

2. LETTERS

While in the midst of a rather lengthy explanation of our last short-term forecast, the market took out the March 11 highs of 7111. The overriding question now becomes: is ~7200 the top, or will it go to 7500-8000, climbing the wall of worry in the next month as Chris Cadbury has steadfastly maintained.

Tomorrow's New Moon (5/6) and Mercury Changing Direction on the 8th should provide the clues as to whether our latest short term forecast was "one astrological cycle too early" or just plain wrong. May 12, May 14, and Full Moon May 22 are all very powerful days. There is enough power for a 1000 point drop within 15 trading days and technically, the market can crash i.e. drop 500 points or more in a day. something that it could not do before my April call. So between now and the 12th we will give our opinion. My inclination is to start the 15 trading watch either from the 6th or the 7th. Stay tuned.

2. Henry, I just wanted to say I've enjoyed your posts to the Mstar list..... My sense is that most of those who know, don't tell (at least the specifics of their research). And many want to know, but won't do their own research.

I noticed that the decline from Dow 7111 to 6356 ended the HOUR of Mer. retro, not that this is the sole cause, but I'll sure be watching the upcoming direct, as well as Ur. retro mid month. One thing that bothers me about looking for a top too soon is the incredible breadth on these 100+ point days.

Oh, almost forgot. Do you think anything of the reconstruction chart for NYSE OF 5/11/1869 10:30 AM? Anyway, thanks and I hope the masses are not being too hard on you for not making them all millionaires yet. Bill

HW: HAVEN'T WORKED WITH THIS CHART, BUT IT SEEMS LIKE IT HAS SOME VALUE.

<You've been doing this for a couple of years now. When don't you give it up? Can you spin this sufficiently to keep selling books? Maybe you should start calling yourself a revisionist future historian.

BTW, I'd suggest laying off the "short NSCP" half of your mantra for now.

HW: Jeesh, you sound just like my wife! Why? My Netscape is still very profitable, and there is plenty of stop room. Markets do go up AND DOWN.

While it is true I have haven't gotten the "date" on the US stock market crash , (as I did definitely the FIRST time with JAPAN, Mexico, US bond market etc), I have substantial success in precisely picking important topping dates. Don't you believe: "practice makes perfect?" :)

Well, for what it's worth, I enjoy your morning broadcasts. Not only do you admit when your call has been wrong, you actually sound disappointed. (I don't care what anybody says, even if we learn to not let our trading be influenced by our emotions, we still have emotions!) Many "forecasters" phrase theirs words to interpret themselves as being right no matter what happens. And they always say, "see I told you so" after any market move. I like knowing that you like coffee and that you have a mother in Florida. :-) Now, let's make some money! ..........Susan

HW: SOUNDS GOOD TO ME! THANK YOU.

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SPECIAL REPORT MAY 5, 1997, Part I

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1. FORECAST REVISION

2. LAST CONFERENCE CALL

3 LETTERS

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1. According to a psychic friend May 5 is a "dangerous day" for me. Will it be the DIJA blowing out my March 11 top? Well May has several very POWERFUL dates, especially the 8th, 14 and 22, and of course May 5 and 12th. We made some choices in our last short term forecast which we will explain and revise in Part II of our post.

2. May 16-18 is the our 5th Annual Astrology and Stock Market Conference. We have attendees coming from Europe and North America as well as a superb high level post conference workshop by Dr. Landscheidt. We forward look to major press coverage and hopefully releasing the contest details of the Magi Society/ Astrologers Fund Inc competition. Also, NYC is lovely in May, but if you can't make it this year, plan on celebrating the 206th Anniversary of the New York Stock Exchange with us next year May 17, 1998.

3. I hope I'm not too forward in asking, but, what's going on? Is a blow off under way? Is the 1000 pt drop off?

HW: NO but I made [atl least} one misteak by being one astrological cycle too early. In part II I will explain.

Do you feel that market is bullish and ready to take off due to Budget deal? Or is it Mercury/Neptune square will give deception to Bulls?

HW: Well it was concluded under "Neptune SR". enough said.

1000 PT DROP. oops. Tthe ice age advance continues soon to make all other concerns, political, social, and economic trivial by comparison. Just ask the folks of North Dakota how long it took for the novelty of sand bagging in the ice to wear off. Cheers. Alan.

HW: OH, you thought I meant Dow points, NOT S/P points? :)

FROM CHRIS CADBURY 5/5:

"The CBOE equity-put-call volume ratio has not reached market-topping levels yet. The McClellan Oscillator is very high. Very high readings for the oscillator are bullish. It is too early to cash in the enormous gains."

A reader comment: Cadbury may have laugh now but my money is your forecast on lower close next Friday compared with today's rocket upward on short covering - in my opinion. My Scott technical studies after close today show both NYSE and NASDAQ are grossly overbought and subject to violent correction. Regards- Clark

Hello, Henry!

Forgive me for not paying closer attention to the progressions and transits for the NYSE. In my congratulatory email of April 16/97 I mentioned the need to keep an eye on the declinations as well as the longitudes.

The current NYSE action is showing us how true that is! I should have alerted you to the transiting Jupiter contra-parallel transiting Sun that was slowly applying even then. Not a likely transit for a 1000-point decline! The Sun will next apply square radical Jupiter (1792 chart) near May 8 and square radical Pluto near May 11 and finally eclipse its own radical place on May 17.

I wouldn't look for anything epochally bearish, therefore, prior to May 15 when transiting Saturn starts applying parallel radical MC. And even that transit won't spook the public as much as the Saturn transit over the (1792) 10th House radix Moon beginning around May 30. THAT may bring on a collapse!

This could all mean: (a) a double-top, (b) that we've made only the left shoulder of a much higher top or (c) that the bull market is not after all dead but has merely taken a nap.

In support of scenario (c) we should keep in mind that there are no really bearish progressed aspects to the 1792 chart until Sept. 1998 when progressed Moon applies opposed and contra-parallel radix Saturn.

Curiouser and curiouser! Best regards,Bill Phillips

GOOD ANALYSIS BILL. STILL, WATCH OUR DATES AS WELL!

Hi Henry,

Happy you mentioned the 1976 through 1978 time period (in today's "audio" update) wherein the market made a significant drop throughout 1977 and into the very early 1978 time frame.

Now, if we go back 20 years we find that the market made a significant low very late in 1957. And, going back 20 more years we find the market making a major low in late 1937.

So, here we are, still early in 1997 and, if "that cycle" repeats, we're going down hard 'till at least the end of the year.

By "that cycle", I mean a harmonic of the 59.58 year Jupiter-Saturn cycle. For some reason, it seems like every 120 degrees of this 360 degree cycle or circle, the market wants to repeat -- especially in some parts of this 20 year sub-cycle. And, if we compare what happened in 1898, 1918, 1938, 1958 and 1978, we will find that these years - which just "happened" to be separated by 20 years -- had, overall, a very strong bullish trend. But first, came the big drop which proceeded these years and which, I believe, we've just begun.

So, thanks for pointing out that nominal "60 year" Master Time Cycle!

Anyone who has read your book could have come up with the above. In fact, I've heard that Gann may have based his annual forecasts on something like what is described above. Please feel free to mention any of the above you like in your "audio" or written updates if you like. Some folks may find it interesting and helpful.

Best regards, Louis E. Stein

HW: I AGREE.

AURA BEST, HENRY WEINGARTEN

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