1. RECORD MARKETS
2. MARCH SOTMC
3. RE: WSNW 36G
4. CONFUSED
5. LETTERS
Thursday and Friday we profitably traded WSNW Alert 36G as the market
attempted to climb Mt Everest. Until at least the 25th, future shorting
is risky as the BULLS are charging madly - TORO! TORO!
What happens after DJIA 10,000: profit taking or extended short massacre?
After June, there is little question.
Amidst the panic euphoria, keep your focus: The deficit in U.S. trade soared to a record in 1998, as exports sagged in the midst of a sharp slowdown in the global economy. The current account deficit swelled last year by $78.23 billion to an all-time high of $233.45 billion. That smashed the previous record of $168 billion set in 1987. This is why smart global money managers are slowly moving out of US assets over the next year. Even though there are land mines in Japan, China and Europe, trading the Forex without weekly horoscopes, is dangerous as many reversals lie ahead. In 12-14 months, the new horizon will be clear to all.
Last week, the March S&Ps eclipsed the former contract high of 1,294.20 set on January 11. (Afund Key date #1) We have allowed for this, although actually experiencing 1929, I mean 1999, is quite amazing. I keep asking my wife how people can be that stupid. She assures me they can. No matter, a market top most likely will be set before June as well as a summer crash? [See Oracle's (ORCL) dive on Friday for what will be happening market wide.] Is your portfolio protected against this potential? Will it out perform whether the market is up or down? That is ALWAYS our goal.
Greenspan's remarks that he sees no inflation lifted bonds - these words of wisdom comes from the man who said Asia would be no problem. Friday's PPI report is the "Truth" for the next Mercury Rx cycle. Next week we have the St. Patrick's Market Rally: Traders will be buying this historical pattern on the 16th (the day before).
Key Dates: March 17, 25
DJIA:
10,000 Fixation
2. Reader: Do see (rd) & (slb) going much higher you have
price targets of 50 on each of these stocks thanks
A: They both met our trading targets. I would be out or stop
loss them. Either could be long term core holdings, but there is significant
downside risk in the short term. Watching some of our favorite stocks soar:
Sony (SNE) soar 36%, Royal Dutch (RD) 25% and IDTC up 50% this past month.
Our March Stock of the Month Club Pick will be issued on Tuesday.
3. Reader: re: WSNW Alert 36G: I concur with this reasoning, Henry. This is a wave-five top in the making! I am looking at the April puts (OEX) versus the March puts.
AFUND: (After issuing our alert): What IBM put option and price
did you get?
Reader: I can't see the screen through my tears.
4. Forgive me for being confused but are you surprised how high this
market is going?
My broker informed me today that Ralph Alcampora of Morgan Stanley
is now forecasting 11,300 Dow by the end of the year- mind you maybe they
were saying the same bullish things at this time in 1997. Do you think
we will venture much above 10,000 or do you think this is it for the year?
I picked up some IHITF to trade and notice CPU shows an exhaustion
gap with a climax, but I don't wish to purchase with your bearish forecasts.
Company earnings just don't seem to substantiate the unbelievable bullishness
and is the Y2k problem totally to be ignored?
HW: We either go up as high as 10,300 with March 25 as the top region,
or we continue Tulip mania until April/May with 10,600-800. Thereafter
Y2k, and upcoming summer disasters will over ride ANY market manipulation,
investor insanity etc. Of course ANYTHING is possible and we could
see higher. However, we still forecast DJIA 7001.67 as Dec 31th, 1999 close,
although recent market action suggests we may be a little low and 7001.69
may be closer to the truth. ;)
5. Assume you heard your forecast today given by Lou Dobbs of
Money Line? He did say your name and attributed your forecast
to astrology. Way to go!
HW: Yes, I will be a guest on his show shortly.
Q: Why do you want to go short when everyone want to so long?
A: That is the reason!
Q: Well known weekly Fibonacci time series and spiral calendar both
point to major high in stocks near end of April. All I see there
is the Sun Saturn conjunct opposition Mars. Does this look like the
big top to you?
A: Our date is March 25. However, if 10,000 is not the
top +3-5%, then we COULD go higher into April/May. Regardless, investors
would be wise to note that First blood will spill over the summer, confirmed
from both the NYSE and SPX horoscopes cycles.
Reader: You were fully 3 short prior to one of the more awesome 2 day
up moves in a long while. Don't you think that hurt many of your subscribers?
Where's the remorse, or at least the evidence of a lesson learned?
HW: We do not believe there is a lesson to be learned. We expect to
make mistakes and be wrong as all professionals do. In general, we
designed our trading system to be wrong BIG when in error, as we identify
MAJOR cosmic power points and times. We are always trading Risk/Reward
and probability. Using our astrological edge makes make money over time.
Hopefully you made back your losses on WSNW Alert 36F with 36G, as well
as the profits from 36A,B,C,D and E. Please see next weeks' ABC's
of trading for more information.
Q: You were also predicting a down 1st part of the month with an up
second half, yet in the latest WSNW you're agreeing with a subscriber who
holds the opposite view, adopting it as tho it has been your own view all
along!
A: We have long forecast (although NOT traded), March's
upside potential - see my March 25th Date.
The subscriber in question was talking about a possible one week down
cycle from March 10 to March 15/16. This I agreed with. Remember,
markets do not move in a straight line, but up/down, up/down.
Also, on almost any given day, a sharp trader can make money on either
or both the long or short side.
Q: I am getting rather uncomfortable with your commentary since you
rarely take adequate note of your dismal calls, preferring to just slough
them off and move on to the next recommendation.
A: That is EXACTLY what trading is all about.
Also given the choppiness of the market, even "bad" calls, are often
profitable at some point during the day. We are not discussing investing
in our gold market commentary, but TRADING. This is why I always
urge non-professionals to use their own trading parameters to interface
with my market views.
Reader: I just saw the press releases from IHI announcing their three
joint ventures for France and Canada. The fact that each of these
injects an additional $30 million of capital into the company doesn't hurt...
nor does the planned capacity expansion. Unlike most of my fellow
American business types, I regard licensing and jv's as very smart business
practises. It bodes well, I suspect, for their marketing efforts
and I fully expect that they will prebook much of the output of these factories
before they even come on line.
HW: If you would like to track our view of International Hi-Tech Industries
regularly, please visit our posting area: THE
IHI STORY and also check out our latest EPS
Estimates.
Reader: Many thanks. Based on your sector recommendations,
I decided that late January would be a good time to get into Royal Dutch.
As I don't see that the fundamentals have altered all that much yet, today
looked like a great day to bail... what with crude prices doing their usual
dance under OPEC's direction and the DJIA surging in its final gasp.
It was a great buy and a great sell. I may pick up some more after
Saturn-Neptune square and Merc retro are past. Meanwhile, I'll park
in cash as you recommend.
HW: Good trading!
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