February 8 WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK:
Financial Astrology for the Successful Investor and Trader
1. TIME IS RUNNING OUT
2. STOCK OF THE MONTH CLUB
3. STOCK SPLITS
4. QUOTE
5. LETTERS
FEBRUARY MARKET TOPPING OR CONSOLIDATION?
With a killer solar eclipse forthcoming mid month, we are hoping to
say good bye to the OEY.
In other words, that the OEX will be solidly below 600, at least until
March. This week, traders should continue to watch our GE marker:
GE below 100, stay short; GE above 100, bears should hibernate.
February's marker day was UP 92 points, which shows EXTREME bullish investor sentiment. That means, any neutral, (non-news day) this month has an upward bias, despite tops in the broad market and Nasdaq as well.
Classic Contrarian BUY signal for Gold: Tuesday's Wall Street Journey
Money and Investing section:
Gold loses its luster as an asset- "Good as gold isn't as good
as it used to be."
XAU 65.72 (up 2 on Monday) and closed Friday at 67.95. Thank you WSNJ.
Note: New WSNW subscriber coverage for Canada - light at the end of the tunnel. For our Canada picks later this year, see CANADA.
Key Date: February 16
US Bonds: Buy 5.30 OB
2. We bought our February stock pick BAAN (BAANF) Friday close at 9 13/16 with a half investing position. We recognize it could drop as low as 8 5/8-8 3/4. Should that happen, we will buy again. Our 12-18 month target is above 15.
3. One of the DISproofs of market efficiency are stock splits.
Traditionally, stocks rally just before and after stock splits, and then
decline. So if you need more reasons to sell or short, review:
MacDonalds [MCD], IBM, Microsoft [MSFT], Intel [INTC], AOL, YHOO
and EBAY.
Also probable split candidates: WALMART [WMT], MCI and Lucent
[LU].
4. SEC chairman Arthur Levitt, alarmed by a 330% increase in the
number of 1998 complaints about online investing, is urging investors to
be cautious in their online trading activities.
"It is just as easy, if not more, to lose money through the click of
a button as it is to make it."
5. Q: I am very concerned about the markets, and altho I have made some money finally in the last year after having overcome my stubborn bearish tunnel vision, I'm afraid your bearishness is rubbing off on me. I seem to be losing my nerve to be in with both feet. In fact recently I was fully invested with leverage 3 times and backed out of positions partly because of your calls. In each instance, had I stayed invested, the upcoming bull run would have left me in very good shape. This happened again as I sold out this week also in response to your bearish call. Now I am also concerned to see you waffling over the near term outlook, since yesterday you were boldly bearish, yet today you didn't seem too sure the eclipse would have any effects at all. I can't use that type of commentary to help me manage my money. As I expressed to you before, maybe you are in the kind of bearish funk I was in for 3 or 4 of the greatest years of bull run ever. It seems your long term outlook for the year is overly coloring your short term perceptions of the market's potential direction. I am confused again. It seems to me that if you aren't fairly sure about an upcoming move, you should probably not say anything at all about it. If you are sure and the predicted move doesn't materialize, we'll draw our own conclusions about the validity of your methods.
HW: Thursday WSNW Alert 36C was another home run. Our 1999 bench mark UIT is up 9% YTD vs. a DJIA of less than 2%. (1998's was 31% and if held till Friday 45%). Our January Stock of the Month Club Pick Biomira (BIOMF) was up over 50%. Our January 11 top has held and marked 3 PERFECT S & P Future tops etc.
I am a cosmic value player. I can NOT in good conscience buy good or bad companies that are vastly overpriced. I prefer to market time and buy value. That far exceeds any buy and hold index and also allows me to sleep at night. Bearish funk? Nah, grrrrrrrrrrh! :)
Q: The worst is over in Brazil, from a stock market point of view,
unless this spread makes a new high....
HW: While Rubin is TVing in Davos, this was OK thinking. But astrologically,
Brazil remains rather negative this spring, although it does turn positive
later this Fall. I have spoken with several Brazilians in the last
week and they don't think things change as quickly in the REAL world as
it does in the US. :) While we recommended a quick trading buy for
the REAL at 2.0+, that is already over and done with. Of course,
some Brazilian exporters who do NOT have major foreign debt like Aracruz
(ARA) could be buys now, but from a global perspective there are far better
Risk/Reward investments.
Q: Hi Henry do you have a target price on IDTC Thanks
HW: We sold at P1 16 and hope to re-buy again cheaper.
Its P2 target is 18, if you are inclined for a more intermediate term hold.
Q: Would you answer the following two questions - there are probably
other international investors as well as my selif who are relatively new
subscribers who are also now investors in IHI.
1. IHI seem to run up to $2.50 in previous years and now obviously
is quite a different price. Is it a case back then of a new promising company
and then because things didn't happen fast enough the traders fell away
and now just the longer term investors left?
2. Do you see the stock reaching $10.00 this year? After that is it
quite feasible for the stock to run past $30.00 or is that years away?
Congratulations re your prediction of the direction of the Dow today.
P.S I am buying some more IHI and probably some more tonight.
HW1: The stock fell back because the company was constantly delayed in building the first factory. In fact it is not yet finished. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. I will be up in Vancouver next week for the BC House show and will report back on IHI progress then. Their latest news release is encouraging.
HW2: Internally, we have just raised our 5 year target for IHI from
$100 to $250. Before you think of committing me, remember even
AOL shares sell for well over $3500, split adjusted. 24 factories has been
contracted for. That is $72 per share earning when in FULL production.
IF and I say IF, production begins this June and the BC factory is
finished by IHI day August 15, 1999, the bubbly due me for $30 IHI stock
could be one to two years. If more factory delays, well then, we
will ALL scream!
Q: I was wondering: does the fact that Pluto is going to be considered
a 'trans-Neptunian object' or something like that make it less relevant
for using with regards to forecasting market movements? Or was it never
that important anyway?
A: If you dont' care about forecasting TOPS and BOTTOMS i.e. trend
changes, then Pluto has little importance for financial astrologers.
Q: What is the significance of today, the "February marker day?"
A: This means we watch the market and believe it will foretell the
month, i.e. if today ends up, so will the month, or if it crashes down,
so will the market in February.
On February 3rd, the market ignored bad news (as usual) and stayed
positive UNTIL the very last minute! Sounds like the zeitgeist of
most "investors" today. However, the post 3pm trend was down.
Please send your comments, questions and
suggestions to Letters.
"Can you afford NOT to have financial astrology
in YOUR future?"
Stop reading Wall Street, Next Week, last week: YES,
I WANT TO SUBSCRIBE
Subscriptions investing edition are $300 one year; $500 two years;
new subscribers 3 month intro $99.
Subscription rates trading edition are $500/annual; $150/Quarterly.
************************************************************************************