January 18 WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
Early edition emailed 1/14.
1. MARKETS
2. CADBURY
3. QUOTE
4. ON LINE TALK
5. RE: ALAN
6. LETTERS
1. STRIKE ONE - Brazil's collapse last week was no surprise, although
analysts putting out buy recommendations on Yahoo at 420 on January 11...
PLeeeeaaasse.
Todate, our call for January 11, 1999 being like July 20, 1988 is RIGHT
on target. How much of a bloodbath can be expected on January 18,
19? Well at the minimum a test of December 31 close-DJIA 9181 and likely
DJIA 9000 as well. Well nothing like what is coming up later in the year
if no significant correction takes place beforehand. Please note,
we may be BUYING a little Tuesday close or Wednesday a few of our 1999
UIT stocks in client portfolios, price-dependent.
Before the next Jupiter/Saturn conjunction in 2000, before the end of
the Millennium, before THE FALL, the truth of the axiom
"Never confuse brains with a bull market."
will be painfully clear to all investors, newbies and professionals
alike.
KEY DATES: January 18, 19
DJIA:
P1 DJIA 9181 P2 9000 P3 8888
2. From #1906 1/13/99 Christopher
Cadbury:
"Evidence is stronger now than ever before the great run in the stock
market from 1982 has come to an end.
(1) The CBOE equity put-call volume ratio has been around a market-topping
level of .33 or less for five consecutive sessions through Monday, the
longest streak since 1982.
(2) For the first time in many years, AMG has revealed net outflows
from the equity funds during three weeks in December and only a small net
inflow in the first week of January.
(3) The last ICI report shows the lowest percentage of mutual fund
cash, 5.2% of assets in twenty years except for June and July about the
time of the prior top.
(4) The percentage of bulls in the Investor's Intelligence survey has
been around 6-year high for remarkably long eight weeks. Generally the
longest periods of extreme readings produce the worst down turns.
(5) The great markets of the past have blown off with one major technology
group; in the 1880s the electric lighting companies, in the 1920s radio
stocks and in the 1960s computer firms. Today of course the Internet stocks
have exploded.
(6) Obviously the stock markets P/e multiples are the highest in history
by far."
3. ``Earnings wont play a role because stocks became detached from value long ago, making it one of the most overvalued and riskiest markets in history. With prices detached from fundamentals, I can't see where earnings are going to suddenly start determing what is going to happen to the market,'' said James Stack, president of InvesTech Research. ``Actual S&P 500 earnings are down for the last three years, yet the market pushed to more exuberant extremes,'' he said.
4. You can down load our 01/05/99 private AOL seminar on Financial Astrology Q & A.
5. John Crudele on the FED- January 11 NY post article on the Fed MARTS NEED GREENSPAN AS DESIGNATED DRIVER. Read it and Weep.
6. I noticed that January 1999 has two Full Moons which occur
on the 2nd and 31st. February has none while March also has two which also
occur on the 2nd and 31st. What significance?
HW: There are several points to consider:
First, Full Moon "lore" is about EMOTION and plenty of it, ie.
VOLATILITY.
People on the edge go crazy; larger than normal market moves are to
be expected. With 5 instead of 3 Full Moons in the first quarter,
you can expect INSANE MARKETS!! (e.g. January 6.)
Second, consider the aspects to the Moon. Both second or Blue
Moon days have Uranian aspects, so expect SURPRISES i.e. mechanical system
trading computer programs are likely to be wrong those weeks.
Third, look at the horoscopes of the Countries, Stocks or Stock Markets
that are affected by the specific degrees of the Full Moon to localize
the effects.
The market was up 100+ points yesterday and yet some of the equity funds
(Janus 20 for instance) was DOWN! Sign of a top? I think so!
HW: Agreed. January 11, 1999 has been forecast to be one (of
two) market tops by us since last year.
Q: What are your comments on at&t stock for this year.
A: Our updated quarterly views on DJIA
stocks are posted on our Silver - Investor subscriber channel.
Q: I have 2 questions:
1: If I wanted to ask whether this next sell off was a buying opportunity
like last July or a trend reversal would your service answer this?
2: How much is your service for an individual?
A: There are ALWAYS buying AND selling opportunities in the stock market.
We have 3 different services - silver, gold and platinum, The first
two are for individuals.
Q: Thanks for telling me that you see this the same as July 20th. I
didn't know this from your previous reports. Is this information that came
out today? [January 11]
A: Released in our Platinum channel last year, two week ago in
our Daily Market Commentary (Gold channel) and on WNSW Silver, a few days
ago.
I get "URL not found" for www.afund.com/premium/daily.htm since first
of January. HW: yes it is now "http://www.afund.com/premium/daily.html."
When you have such problems, clear your browser and try again by logging
in from our front screen.
I am interested in your timing regarding going short on yahoo - as
far as I am concerned their earnings are of absolutely no consequence,
but the fact that they split next week puts a different face on things!
Is the idea that the big crash comes first, then maybe the traditional
pre/post split jump? btw - I am happy to say that your price/timing information
has already sponsored my yearly subscription to afund!!
A: Don't use "tradition" when trading Internet stocks. When the
bull market is over, Yahoo will be closer to 40 than 400 as we have long
stated. However, that being said, Internet stocks are trading vehicles
like the S. & P. Use TIME and PRICE for markers - "tradition"
is often a traders fake out.
WSNW Alert 36 - right on the money!
HW: Thank you.
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