January 11 WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
1. MARKET TOP
2. AFUND JUPITER UIT
3. MAGIC 25
4. 1999 TRADING CONTENT
5. LETTERS
Has the US Stock market peaked? There is a 50% chance that the US market 1999 top is already in place give or take one day. Our 1999 forecast of the First half of January UP was to be followed by February down, with a DJIA peak on either January 11 or X. While the market can stay positive until this Friday the 15th, IT SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN ON January 18, 19TH. (February put options could be appropriate). With only one more projected TOP in March, we may take some short term investing profits next week (in those stocks up more than 25% YTD).
KEY DATES: January 11, 18,19
DJIA:
P1 TARGET 9400, P2 9200, P3 9000.
2. We have moved our hypothetical 1999 Jupiter UIT from our platinum to our silver investing channel. Currently it is up more than 13% (11% after 2% wrap) since December 31 close, more than 2 1/2 the DJIA. While our 1998 UIT returned more than 31% after expenses, this is investing with one hand behind your back. We obviously prefer active management and rather than just "touch it once". However, it does demonstrate that financial astrology helps with stock picking AS WELL AS market timing.
1999 UIT HOLDINGS:
BA (BOEING), BAANF (BAAN), BIOMF (BIOMRA), CAT (CATERPILLAR), CVD (COVANCE),
HM (HOMESTAKE), IDTC (IDT), IHITF (IHI), MOT (MOTOROLA), NEM (NEWMONT),
OXHP (OXFORD) AND SLB (SCHLUMBERGER)
3. The January issue of Individual Investor is a much more balanced portfolio than in the past. These 25 stock picks include a few we have looked into such as Motorola, (one of my 99 favorites), Corning (which we prefer more in 2000 than 1999) as well as Ford, (a popular money management favorite.)
4. John Dorfman 1999 Contest Rules
For 1999, the investment contest will have two parts -- stock picking
and guessing where the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be as of Dec.
31, 1999.
The stock-picking competition works much as it did last year. The goal is to pick a stock that does best between Jan. 15, 1999 (the official starting date), and Dec. 31, 1999. To be considered, a stock must have a market value of at least $100 million and must be traded in the U.S. It need not necessarily be a U.S. company, however. ADRs are eligible, and so are closed-end investment funds. Short sales, options and futures aren't eligible, although short sellers can enter my separate short- selling contest, which begins each September.
The second part of the contest is new this year. The aim is to predict the closing level of the Dow average at the close of the year. If you'd like to enter either or both parts of the contest, email John Dorfman.
5. I would like a password to the silver channel. I read last
month that any subscriber could access it with a request for a password
.
A: Yes this is a basic subscription benefit. Your password
is XX.
Q: Since I am in Switzerland, I am interested as to whether your dates
should have a similar effect on the markets over here as well? (I presume
so, since we tend to follow the DJIA, especially when it is negative...)
A: Yes, while each world market has its own horoscope, the US
is still the dominant player and this is why we often post our views of
the next trading day on our market commentary at 4pm for the benefit our
Asian and European subscribers. However, if you are trading US markets,
we recommend (re) checking around 9am ET in case last minute news adjusts
our thinking.
Q: Arch Crawford predicts a weak market until about Jan.20, then an
upturn to about Apr.10,followed by a prolonged (perhaps severe)down turn
into late Aug/early Sept., then a late year rally. Question: Do you see
these dates as significant in the same (or another) way, or alternative
dates or direction,or...?
A: Some of this is similar to ours, Much is not. Same with his dating
- some of it is close to ours, some not.
Q: Where did you hide your daily commentary. If I login with the
normal procedure I get the message: URL not found on this server.
A: If you are having any problem, first clear your browser cache
and relogin. If that doesn't work, email us. Occasionally,
we make a posting error and unless informed, it passes us by.
Q: WSNW Alert 36 Between 9500 and January 11 close SELL
I don't understand what you mean....is it possible to clarify? Also
I am also interested in buying into your UIT, is there a minimum?
A: Yes, PRICE-wise the market is high enough to START
selling stock. Time-wise, we initially predicted one stock market high
circa next Monday. For us, this is a 3 step process, done in the
futures at SPH 1280, 1288 and 1290. However, this can be done with
stocks or options just as well between DJIA 9500 and 9680.
Re: Money Management, our minimum investment size is currently 100K. Please see Money for details.
Q: When you quote SPH as a buy around 1280 (SPX I assume), what
are actually referring to? I presume it is not a Sears & Roebuck
Apr 40 PUT!!
Q: SPH is the March Futures contract. Please read TRADING
with our Daily Market
Commentary V 1.
Henry, this move up does not really look like a triple top. Breadth
is good and the fundamentals at the moment are positive, the market
ignores bad news, and there is still a lot of money sitting on the sidelines.
You may be right about the short term drop next week, but I would say the
intermediate term trend is definitely up. Better be quick on your feet
if you are going short big time. Psychologically this market needs and
wants to break 10,000, and then who knows what!
A: I don't fully agree or disagree. We are reaching a fight
area at SPH 1280 and 1288 and Monday is one top day, and the 18th and 19th
are BIG down days. After which March IS probably another leg up.
Yes we are quick.... 10,000 is possible - just not tonight or this next
week (I hope).
Please send your comments, questions and suggestions to Letters.
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