January 4 WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
1. MARKETS
2. ASIA
3. GOLDBUG
4. VALUE PORTFOLIO
5. CADBURY CONTRARIAN PART II
6. LETTERS
KEY DATE: JANUARY 11
2. Hong Kong is likely in for a nasty January surprise. Key Technical Resistance levels for the Asian markets we watch are: Nikkei and Straits Times 14,000 and for Hang Seng 10,000 - how low will they go in 99? At least a good test of the lows of last year. Intermediate term, I believe the Yen is too strong. Whose press will print faster in 1999/2000: the US or Japan - that is the $64,000 question. Gold anyone?
3. From THE GOLDBUG's COMMENT - December 23, 1998.
"We may get a nice gift for Xmas. How about a bottom in the price of
gold and gold stocks?... On a technical side, we should have a 3rd
wave up that could produce a 50% move on gold stocks and allow the metal
to get above last April high near $315.... On a fundamental basis, gold
has several reasons to go higher in 1999.
First, there is a new currency: the EURO. Many predict that it will
rapidly move up versus the dollar and as a result of the euro's emergence,
the $US will weaken faced with new competition. Isn't that good for gold?
Next, China, Japan and Asia are likely to diversify and replace some
of their $US reserves by the Euro and by gold. Still good for the metals!!!
And finally, the Gold/S&P500 ratio has never been that high. I
mean that gold has never been so cheap when compared to US equities.
All are good reasons to convince the Internuts fans to move some of their profits into the precious metals market. Watch the precious metals, this time, it could be for real...."
4. From Cadbury: "Subdued expectations by investors as well as the 50 widely followed analysts mentioned in Business Week make 1999 look like a good year for stocks. A Harris poll shows that only 31% of investors prefer mutual funds or common stocks at the moment vs. 60% that like real estate, bonds, savings accounts, or money market funds best. Nine percent have no preference. The percentages are about the same as those for the past three years. A hefty 55% of investors think that a market crash is very or somewhat likely within 12 months."
5. Reynolds Russell, Editor, Graham and Doddsville Revisited
"GADR's Dow Value Portfolio for 1999 will be the same 4 stocks as in
1997 and 1998: AT&T, Boeing, GM, and IBM. Another round
of equal dollar amount purchases, this time at the closing prices of 12/31/98,
will be assumed. "
6. Q: You both (and the Goldbug) could be right, but why tell me and
the whole world?
A: Well if you All buy Gold AFTER we are in, we get even richer
that way! :)
Q: You had expected a gold move above $300. It seems to be falling further.
Do you still expect an upward gold move?
A: Yes, as our target has been $310 by the end of February. We
are slightly disappointed by the lack of a December move. We knew we were
fighting serious technical issues, but we are more than bullish through
February on an astrological basis.
I was looking at your web site for 1998 predictions and you have said
that the AOL and amzn will be losers but i don't think they were. I hope
you make better prediction next time.
HW: AOL of course has a very good horoscope, and we were obviously
early with this forecast. But we are in the camp that sees Yahoo
at 40 not 400 at year end. As to trading, of course one can trade
internet stocks either side to profit.
It does worry me that Cadbury has such a different view of the end of
1999. Personally, I think the market is dangerously overheated but agree
it probably has more in it yet. Do you use his technicals yourself?
A: Cadbury tracks money flows and market betting (option buying)
which is almost as important as astrology in forecasting markets.
I do pay attention to his work and when it disagrees with mine, my approach
is more cautious. However, I believe astrology (market psychology)
is the stronger of the two.
As to who is right at the end of 1999, we will know soon enough!
Q: Have you seen AstroEcon's Long term Prognostications for 1999? Robert
Hitt give his Important Astrological dates for 1999: AstroEcon 1999.
A: Yes. I note he has one of my four key dates of
1999 listed.
Q: How do you see Paper stocks performing worldwide in 1999? We have
a stock here called Fletcher Paper-also listed in the USA that is looking
good technically.
A: Better for the long term than short term. We prefer beaten up sectors
like paper when you MUST invest prudently.
Q: Do you have a target price for BA and CAT?
A: 20% appreciation within 12-18 months
You wrote: 1] "Capital preservation" in '99; 2] Inflation
from Jup/Nep aspect and 3] "gold will shine." IE, preserve capital
during inflation with gold! Whole sector's trading at or below book,
off 40-90%! FYI, eg, Freeport pref B converts to 1/10 oz Au, or at
~19 is a 30% discount off actual bullion.
Maybe you'd comment on 1/9/99 [a Saturday] when Neptune strikes theJup/Pluto
midpt. Besides dreams & drugs, Neptune is resources and mines
[long term], too, right? And Jup *expands* the *power* of Pluto,
no? [Or empowers the expansion of mining?] Would I guess right
to say, buy every scrap of gold & jr. gold you can find on 1/8/99 as
it's probably a low pt for the sector [gold just fell through resistance]?
The best day to start cap preservation?
A: While we have two gold stocks in our January 99 UIT, I believe
some inflation will come into statistics AFTER the third pass of the Saturn/Neptune
April 6. Personally I don't like FCX because they are said to have
a rather poor environmental record in Indonesia as well as too much exposure
there. Still the date you suggest should be positive for gold, even
if not pivotal.
Q: I have signed up for the Silver newsletter but would like more
information about the difference between the Silver and the Platinum letter.
I became interested in astrology about a year ago and still have much to
learn. I bought your book "Investing by the Stars" in Orlando this
past summer at the astrology convention. My wife, Sherra, and I are
on your email list and receive your forecasts. We are most interested
in understanding more about the financial astrology.
HW: The letters are the same. However, Platinum subscribers also
have access to the gold and platinum areas of our website in addition to
AFUND tracking of major positions in their portfolio.
Suggest you attend the May 14-16 ISBA conference in NYC to help you
understand more about Financial Astrology.
We also offer direct Money Management services if that is of interest
to you.
Q: Is it possible to get into the archives at CNN to access your
8.30pm interview. I tried and was unsuccessful. Perhaps if I knew
the name of your topic, it might help.
A: See the link on our website at Market Commentary. Our show will
be there for the month of January at www.cnnfn.com. We are the second segment
on December 30th.
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