1. DJIA 9000
2. JOHN GLENN MARKETS
3. WHAT TO BUY, SELL AND HOLD
4. NOVEMBER STOCK OF THE MONTH CLUB
5. LETTERS
As more and more bears throw in the towel and chant the mantra: "this market wont go down", the market continues to defy gravity. In saving LTCP and the president, we calculate 3 1/2 remaining emergency arrows. That is a frighteningly familiar countdown comparison to the Tokyo market crash, which was being held up until their arrows were gone.
Alan Greenspan, who blew up my short positions in February saying Asia would be no problem for the US economy, did it again on Thursday, assuring investors they had no reason to be fearful. DON'T BE FEARFUL? Economic reality demands it! To quote the Babylonian sage: "The handwriting is on the wall."
The increasing velocity of US markets means TRADE the United States. Do not invest fresh money here. That is exactly what the Japanese and astute global investors are doing - Exiting. Looking back from May 2000, it will be clear why the United States is NO Longer THE place to invest. Of course I am taking the long view of 12-18 months. I am not suggesting a panic exit, but would advise doing it ahead of the crowd. The mantra for portfolio 2000 is CAPITAL PRESERVATION.
According to Chris Cadbury, the Dow and the Nasdaq Composite will end the year above current levels, perhaps well above current levels. Should the market not correct ahead of November 18, DJIA 10,000 is increasingly possible as there are several astrological and seasonal positive factors thereafter. Or has the market anticipated them? I really don't know as I have yet to correct our mid-October market error, being focused on preparing 1999 portfolios. As an investor, there are clearly safer and better intermediate/long term risk/rewards elsewhere. As a trader however, the US market is THE place to be. As traders, we don't' mind missing a few trades, although we hate losing ones. On the institutional side, our recent hedging has been profitable, such as shorting US bonds and buying British gilts.
Two basic strategies are tentatively proposed for the near term:
Investing: Buying strong stocks and selling weak ones.
Trading: Guerilla trading and one position short
overnight.
November 12 Jupiter turns Stationary Direct. This plus FOMC 17/Full Moon 18 are 2 of the 3 primary markers for November. November 2 you may recall, was a strong up day.
Key dates: November 10, 12
2. Alan Ableson noted in a recent Barrons that the last time John Glenn rocketed into space, the Dow responded with a big dipper of its own, dropping 25% in the next four months.
3. We have yet to determine whether this recent market move will continue
to 10,000, or turn back to under 8500. What to Buy, Sell and Hold NOW are
the key questions. We have 3 primary time periods to consider,
A) Now to end of 1999,
B) January effect to Spring,
C) 1999 Correction.
We also have 3 possible price areas, DJIA 9000, 10,000 and 8500 and
below.
Let's start with selling - near DJIA 10,000 everything should be sold
that you do not want to hold until 2000+. This week at 9000, we begin
to reduce US exposure as well as selectively elsewhere.
As to buying - we see a 3-1 downside risk at current price levels:
given our 14 month target of 7000 and a 10,000 possible upside target.
We are trading-buying some small caps, and have many unfilled buy orders
far underneath the market. Even if we miss another move up,
we are still significantly ahead.
4 [11/3] Our selection this month is more speculative than usual, i.e.
thinly traded and clearly is picked for a January effect small cap move.
Brio Technologies or BRYO.
We are buying this week at 7 1/2 or better (6 3/4 bottom possible)
and if it reaches 10-10 1/2 we take profits or use close trailing stops.
We are clearly trying to bottom fish here.
Note: since only 400 shares traded at 7 1/2, we are extending this
buy at 7 1/2 OB until November 17.
5. Henry, What's up with IHI? Did you see the drop today???!!!
On high volume!!!!!
HW: Yes, I presume either early tax loss selling or shorting
as no new news. Just slow, (very slow) factory progress. We
were in there buying and used the opportunity to lower the average cost
of our shares. Either this is brilliant long term or throwing some
small good money after bad. Given that I view bulletin board stocks
are non-expiring options, I like both the odds and risk/reward of buying
more IHI here.
I am most confused by exactly what your advice is now. For those of
us that have been following the alerts to hold maximum cash and gold
etc. - does this means we have to plunge back into the market to
join the mad bulls, or are we still on course for a melt down (or meltback)
as previously predicted? I would be most grateful for some guidance. Thanks
HW: Gold has not been doing badly recently. Of course gold and
cash does NOT a portfolio make. You might consider some trading buys, small
caps but avoiding nifty fifty stocks. Remember the lesson of Rockefeller
Center properties (RCP) if you are a LONG TERM investor. There are
always market opportunities.
I am slightly disconcerted by the apparent lack of market reaction to
MA = SA/NE + the upcoming full moon. Any thoughts?
HW: The market did start to turn on the Full Moon but Alan interfered
once again on Thursday. The B.A.R. (Bill, Alan, Rubin) team
was successful in propping up the market and allowing the LTCM owners to
avoid bankruptcy. I believe this is very short sighted given the long-term
consequences of these actions.
What forms of technical analysis do you use most consistently?
Do you use any computer programs when doing your stock or market analyses?
I had a knowledgeable trader (whom you do not know) comment to me that
"you sure are one sharp market analyst." Kudos to you!
HW: We primarily rely on proprietary analysis based on two years
of day in day out research analysis until the AHA moment. one early morning.
Now that 8600 has been blasted through are you re-thinking your call?
7400 to 8700 this has been a big move. Is this a "fools rally" or
are people who think it such a rally the real fools? Brazil does
look dicey and I saw some write up on China today in NY Times that was
less than bullish on Chinese economy. These could slap our markets.
HW: My wife berated me this week saying: "Henry you told me month ago
they would PUSH the market up this October for the election, so why were
you short?" See what happens what you don't listen to your wife!!!
As to China and Hong Kong these markets are perhaps the most dangerous
in the world (next to Japan?) over the next seven months. A
major avoid, especially when the new 1999 charts kick in. Then astrology,
fundamentals and techncials ALL poor.
As I recall your call on Hang Seng was good but what the heck with IHI?
I am afraid that this stock is a terminal candidate for tax losses.
It sounds from your words on the company that you have invested a lot of
money. I hope you are rewarded but I don't see how they get from US $.40
back to the $2.50 I recall you first recommending it at let alone higher.
Anyway good investing!
HW: Yes lots invested and more each month. As to the move
back up, ever hear of a "short squeeze"? Of course my targets are
far ABOVE $2.50.... someday.
You will eventually get your 1000 point DJIA prediction correct.Your
timing is a little like everyone else. This market certainly looks
long in the short term..... unless there are surprises to come. The Elliott
wave Theorist is calling for wave 3m down in mid November. My Gann weekly
chart indicates change of trend week ending 13 November.
HW: BUY and holders have far to catch up to our 1998 work. I
would miss the top 1/8 or top 10%. Of course, annoyed for not getting
it 100% right, only 90% right todate.
I understand that you do not react on astrological comments, but in
my studies I encountered something that could be interesting: Look
at the transits for the NYSE (reincorp) Radix dd feb 18 1971 for Nov 6,
coinciding with OEX.
HW: Currently working on 1999/2000 market views. But this time
frame you mention could be a start of another down period.
Just wondering if you have a forecast for oil during the upcoming decline
in the markets (1999)?
HW: We will be buying the vertically integrated oil companies like
Mobil and Royal Dutch in the not so distant future. The worst will
be over soon, but that does NOT mean prosperity is just around the corner.
Still good defensive holdings, and off our avoid list early next year.
"Can you afford NOT to have financial astrology in YOUR future?"
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