1. DECEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

 
1.       1. DUBAI OR NOT TO DUBAI?

We are expecting a very interesting Monday. Will Dubai Jitters Spread or will the ever optimistic analysts and talking TV heads succeed in presenting Dubai Stock Selloff May Bring Buying Opportunity?

2.       I don’t see its impact as short term, even if Abu Dhabi comes to the rescue as is expected sooner or later. At the least, we expect less risk appetite, especially for some of the extra risky emerging markets.

BOTTOM LINE: 

  A mixed picture. However, given we that calculate the Upside Reward as less than 1/3 the Downside Risk, and the Dubai crisis may help keep markets from rallying too much short term (December 2009), we still await lower prices before fresh buying. 

             Of course if we see the classic panic selling Monday into Tuesday morning, there might be a profitable quick trading buying opportunity

ASTRODATES

12/01 Uranus SD
12/02 Full Moon 20.30 am ET
12/16 New Moon 7.02 am ET
12/20 Mars SR
12/21 Jupiter conjunct Neptune & Winter Solstice 12.47 pm ET
12/26 Mercury SR
12/31 Lunar Eclipse 2.13 pm ET 

 
KEY DATES:     NOVEMBER 30, DECEMBER 1
DJIA:                10000 SUPPORT 10500 RESISTANCE
SPX:                 1100 PIVOT S1 1088 S2 1070 S3 1046  1111 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:         2150 PIVOT 2020 SUPPORT 2200 RESISTANCE
XAU:                 170 SUPPORT 197 RESISTANCE
FEB GOLD        1177 PIVOT
MAR SILVER:   17.25 SUPPORT 19.50 RESISTANCE
XOI:                  1090 PIVOT
JAN OIL:           76 PIVOT S1 74 S2 72 S3 67  81 RESISTANCE
US$                  75 PIVOT   

Market Marker Sentiment until March 2010 is Less Volatility with Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays.
The US$ doesn't collapse & Commodities may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.  
7/21 PRE-ECLIPSE: DJIA   8915. SPX   954 & NASDAQ 1916
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       7 ~ FV 1 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 2 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2.  Unless/until there is first a good correction (10%+), the reward of staying long most stocks is not worth the potential down side risk. 

3. Why Silver’s Breakout Could Bring It Out of Gold’s Shadow 
HW: I hope not.  Short term Silver has first resistance at $20 and support at $16, while gold is trading within a $1020 to $1220 range.
Technically, the next trading buy repeats at 1177-1180, but this time on a weekly closing basis.
Note: RBC Capital Long Term Silver Price forecast has just increased from $13 to $15/oz.
We previously increased ours from $11 (commodity) to $12 and from $14 (investment) to $15. However, these days gold and silver fundamentals, aka commodity prices, are less an issue than investor appetite. 

While I am still waiting, there is nothing wrong with buying earlier as long as one accepts precious metal stock prices can just as easily drop 10-15% first as rally.
Hence any buying should be limited to partial accumulation. Fundamentally, the US economy is in poor shape. Yet even with Dubai, this may be ignored in December. Hence gold may continue to rally (or not). 

4. "There's simply more risk where we are. We're at a higher altitude and even though in some ways it doesn't feel like it, it's less safe now than it was in March."
Lawrence Creatura, portfolio manager, Federated Clover Capital Advisors
HW: Well said (before Dubai Wednesday)! 

“We expect profits to continue climbing this quarter as GDP rises further. This will add momentum to the recovery by motivating firms to expand and hire again early next year.”
Joseph Brusuelas, director, Moody’s Economy.com
HW: Dream on. 

“Whether we talk about Latvia, Hungary, Dubai or Greece, everyone will ask the same questions: Have we really moved on in terms of solving the problems in these countries over the last months?"
Lars Christensen, chief analyst, Danske Bank
HW: I don’t think so. 

5. If You Could Love Only One Stock  

Dollar Slump Persisting as Most Accurate Forecasters See No Bottom in 2010 

On Wall Street: Apocalypse how?

Conflicting bets on inflation or deflation 

6. READER: Maybe down in December, high probability in January: Very negative astro January?
HW: Initially more toppy than negative. FAR more negative Spring 2010. 

READER: Let me see if I understood this week’s newsletter forecast correctly.
It may rain. Bring your umbrella or at least prepare to seek shelter.
There could be a typhoon.  Have a detailed exit plan prepared in advance.
Or! It may be calm and sunny.  Bring some sunscreen and enjoy the beach!
Translation: Who the hell knows!
                  Watch your bottom, top, and middle.
                  Swim at your own risk!
                  No lifeguard on duty today!
HW: I just don’t see low risk/high return/probability investment/trades right now.
Hence, we MAY act in a VERY short term perspective or not.
The next big forecasts are Market shorts in Q1 and Silver. 

READER: Any thoughts on gold and silver? Eventually, we will have a correction in gold? Doesn’t silver look cheap here?
HW: Silver or silver stocks? Cheap no, but they are not overly expensive.
I am still waiting personally while VERY close to acting, but prefer a strong, definite signal before acting. I would prefer a pull back first which May or MAY NOT come before the new year.
Note:  Gold came to close to my 1177 closing buy number Friday but was shy of it. 

READER: Can you give me a couple of natural gas stocks you think are worthy of researching?
HW: CHK, DVN, APA, XTO,  NGAS, MCF. 

READER : 1. Gold : Now US $ 1200.00 pto maybe well within 2009 itself. FAIRFAX as of 25th November 2009 - "Gold to move to US $ 1500.00 pto within the next 3 to 6 months". 
We still stick to our target of Gold @ US $ 1500.00 pto latest by December 2010. 
2. Crude Oil : My views are well documented by you already. No revision. A well known analyst who is known to me predicts that if Crude Oil can hold US $ 82.00 pbbl for a week or so then it will zoom to US $ 96.00 pbbl as there is no resistance on the charts after US $ 82.00 ppbl till US $ 96.00 pbbl. I agree with him as technically the charts suggest the same i.e. if US $ 82.00 is "breached convincingly" then Crude will zoom to US $ 96.00 pbbl in a matter of two weeks or so.
HW: This is possible, but also possible that we see $58 to $60 with any dose of economic reality not ignored for more than a few days. 

READER: Gold has gone up and continues, while dollar goes down. Why invest in stocks when the dollar is depreciating. So end up neutral in purchasing power. What about the terrible federal debt and its printing. Don t know why you are not more pessimistic. and advise accordingly?
HW: I am hardly a Pollyanna analyst!  While gold is a long term hedge and has trading momentum, it is still overpriced by 15% or more and there are several scenarios that could have it drop back to equilibrium.