1. OCTOBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. HOW LOW IS LOW? HOW HIGH IS HIGH?
Within the next two weeks, investors will decide whether the annual October correction happens this October, November or later.  While there are external market forces refusing to allow markets to correct, more and more advisors are beginning to question a current Buy & Hold strategy after the significant run from March 2009. Even market bulls are suggesting short term caution as the current upside potential is increasingly seen as smaller than the downside risk.

Bottom line: Unless you believe you need to be in the market all the time, regardless of the possibility of a DOW 10,110+ market short term, the risk-reward just doesn't look very good here.  We remain cautious and prefer to be “safe than sorry.”

GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: David Malpass: The Weak-Dollar Threat to Prosperity

 
KEY DATES:     OCTOBER 13, 15
DJIA:                 9800 PIVOT
SPX:                 1066 PIVOT 1025 SUPPORT 1100 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:         2125 PIVOT 2200 RESISTANCE
XAU:                 PIVOT  R1 147  R2 155 R3 164
DEC GOLD       1050 PIVOT 1010 SUPPORT 1080 RESISTANCE
DEC SILVER:    17 PIVOT 18.25 RESISTANCE
XOI:                  1035 PIVOT
DEC OIL:          72 PIVOT  66 SUPPORT 74 RESISTANCE  

Market Marker Sentiment until 2010 is Less Volatility with Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays.
The US$ doesn't collapse & Commodities may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.  
7/21 PRE-ECLIPSE: DJIA   8915. SPX   954 & NASDAQ 1916
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                        8 ~ FV 1 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. CONSERVATIVE  PORTFOLIOS

The 10 Best U.S. Dividend Stocks

HW: I will be updating our premium subscriber post: S: DIVIDEND & INCOME (4/12/2009) end of the month.

AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIOS

“Our 10 Speculative Small and Microcaps are high risk/high reward "Double your Money” plays.  In the absence of specific company news, we plan to buy

1) 50% or less of our P1 target 2) After a market correction and 3) As close to, or below, our Target Buy as realistic.

Please note:  This is NOT a value oriented portfolio designed to allow one to sleep better at night. Use only Speculative, not Retirement funds, i.e. Be prepared for some potential losses as well as profits!

If markets do NOT correct before the end of October, we plan to be updating our Target Buys.”

WSNW subscribers can read more and begin their own due diligence by reviewing our preliminary selections at S: 10 SPECULATIVE MICROCAPS (10/12/2009). 

3. Gold at all-time high but is it sustainable?
HW: I agree with Jim Rogers that is better not to buy now, but wait for a pullback.. 

READER: Are we early on the [gold] pop here? I was waiting to jump in early Dec.W: I don't know. I was hoping for a low risk, well timed entry.  This is the second time that markets "jumped our gun" by a few days.  This could mean a failure of this rally OR that gold markets will go well beyond my 1080 price target in December.
Price wise I have a 1080 P3 gold target for 2009.  

READER: I am still bullish on GOLD as now it has breached its old high of March 2008. It should test a new high of US $ 1050.00 pto soon. I still stand by my prediction that GOLD will test US $ 1500.00 pto by Q4 2010.
HW:  MY CURRENT GOLD VIEWS: 

 
For WSNW readers worried about the US government confiscating gold again (not my concern), ETF Securities recently launched ETFS SIVER TRUST [SIVR) and ETFS GOLD TRUST (SGOL). Both funds are 100% backed by the physical asset held in Switzerland, which is favored because it is believed to be out of the sphere of influence of the United States and Europe. 

4. "The next big thing we're going to talk about is earnings. Usually after the first couple of days, you get a feel as to what the overall trend is going to be." 
Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist, Schaeffer's Investment Research
HW: Within a week of GE’s Friday report, a consensus should be set.

 "With many companies' growth challenged, we are seeing the tip of the iceberg in M&A."
Scott Billeaudeau, portfolio manager, Fifth Third Asset Management
HW:  Yes, coupled with cheap abundant credit for the Big Boys is one of the main market drivers going forward medium term. 

"Investors are going to be looking for evidence of sales improvement. Most importantly, they'll be looking at the guidance going forward. As the market develops more of this show-me-the-money attitude, investors are going to be less forgiving."

John Stoltzfus, director and senior market strategist, Ticonderoga Securities 

HW:  Perhaps even less gullible too? 

5. Roubini, Prechter See Stock Declines as Soros Says Banks to Hurt Recovery 

Saying `Sell' for Research Renegades Becomes Business Far From Wall Street 

The Rare Earth Metal's Shortage 

6.  READER: Any thoughts on the market-gold, silver and energy?
HW: I am very mixed about gold and silver short term.
Initially October 8 to 13 was the time I was going to buy Silver and hold for the next 9 months.
However I was expecting to buy 15-16 NOT 18.   
I still have a P1 Oil target of $62.  I don’t see US$ BREAKING .75 to 75.50  short term-  we are currently just over .76. 

READER: As you only expect silver to fall to around $15, was there a reason that you did not issue a long term buy in July of this year when it reached around 12.80 or did I miss something in an alert etc.
Is this the beginning of the big run up or will it once more correct severely in the near future?
Jim Rogers is not selling any metals, but he is not buying any more yet until a correction occurs.  He feels that the dollar is oversold short term (though its demise is due to happen in the future).  He will be using dollar strength to dump dollars and accumulate silver and gold plus other commodities.
HW: Silver CAN go much lower.  It may not!  Since I wish a Time Buy around mid October, $15 seems like the place to START to do a long term accumulate. I may have missed that chance. Trading with hindsight is often 20-20.