1. WARNING: CORPORATE EARNINGS AHEAD
Some time this month, investors will decide to continue to “Buy & Hold” or to (continue to) reducing market exposure.
Potential Market positives include: low expectations, government stimulus money will some day (H1 2010) be distributed as well as abundant cash on the side lines
Fortunately for market bears, the “Fear of missing out” is diminishing.  Both Q4 20009 and Q1 2010 corporate earnings will be poor.  If enough CEO’s are like Wal-Mart’s chairman predicting a slow economic recovery and challenging business conditions, markets will drop well below SPX 1000 before a mediocre to poor Christmas Retailing season.
Note: Santa is rumored to be delivering coal over Gucci bags this year. 

SO FAR, SO GOOD
September 16th Markers:   DJIA 9791 NAS 2133 SPX 1068 Shanghai 2999/3050 Dec Gold 1020 Dec Silver 1743 Dec Oil 73.25 Dec Copper 293
October 2^th Markers:            DJIA 9487 NAS 2048 SPX 1025 Shanghai 2779         Dec Gold 1003 Dec Silver 1619 Dec Oil 70.08 Dec Copper 268
OUR ADVICE: Stay the course and be prepared to buy WHENEVER stock prices become compelling again. 

 
KEY DATES:     OCTOBER 8, 9
DJIA:                9500 PIVOT 9400 SUPPORT?  9700 RESISTANCE?
SPX:                 980 SUPPORT 1000 PIVOT
NASDAQ:         2050 PIVOT
XAU:                150 SUPPORT 165 RESISTANCE
DEC GOLD       1000 PIVOT 970 SUPPORT?
DEC SILVER:    16 PIVOT 15 SUPPORT
XOI:                  1010 PIVOT
DEC OIL:           70 PIVOT 68 SUPPORT R1 72  R2 75 R3 76  

Market Marker Sentiment until 2010 is Less Volatility with Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays.
The US$ doesn't collapse & Commodities may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.  
7/21 PRE-ECLIPSE: DJIA   8915. SPX   954 & NASDAQ 1916
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       6 ~ FV 1 UV; 6 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. BUSINESS & BANQUETS
At last weeks’ Maxim Group Growth conference, we were impressed with presentations of two companies we have long been watching: Aastrom Bioscience [ASTM] a stem cell biotech, and USA Technologies [USAT] which supplies cashless, remote management reporting, and energy management solutions to the unattended point of sale market.
We are considering buying both AFTER markets correct significantly for a possible medium term double. 

3. “Recent buyers at over 1000 area may have too many longs as we may test 980 support area and still have a 1025 upside resistance to face. If we are visiting same fundamentals as before then the possible sell-off will again be a buying opportunity. Meanwhile caution prevails in the market as traders eye dollar, crude, and stocks for new leadership.
George Gero, RBC Wealth Management 

We are unclear as to the short term direction of the US$ - whether it will down to test 76 or up to test .79. 
We are also unclear as to how long the US$/US Stock Market inversion trade- US$ down, market up – US$ up, market down will continue.
Given we advise others to follow the old market adage- WHEN IN DOUBT, DON’T (DO ANYTHING), we are likely to watch and wait UNTIL….. 

As Gold Prices Surge, Silver Enjoys Its Own Bull Market
HW: We are still hoping for a Silver test of 15 to first begin accumulation this week or next. 

4. "They're keeping policy very, very easy for an extended period. Because of that we've got a bias very much towards more U.S. dollar weakness in the medium term."
Stephen Koukoulas, chief global markets strategist, TD Securities
HW: Unfortunately true. 

“Resource-related shares will be inevitably affected by the drop in commodity prices.”
Mitsushige Akino, manager, Ichiyoshi Investment Management
HW: They will be ready for slow, long term investing accumulation.
 
“We need confirmation that the economy can strengthen next year. Valuations are at a level that we can’t call a good deal. The potential for stock market gains isn’t as strong as it was.”
Guillaume Duchesne, equity strategist, Fortis Private Banking
HW: Agreed. 

5. Is October correction inevitable? 

Bulls Rule, But Watch Your Back

Negative Treasury Returns Converge With Bernanke's Mortgage-Spread Miracle 

6. READER: Why do you think silver will rise when gold will be falling? Do they not in general move together be it not in the same percentages? I would not feel comfortable investing in silver when gold’s worst month is October or am I missing something?  
HW: This is LONG/SHORT PAIR TRADING which can reduce risk (as well as reward). Note for example, how natural gas has been rising while oil has not.
I am saying I prefer Silver to Gold at this time. There are some differences.  Silver trades more as an industrial metal, while gold trades more as a currency, although this is not a perfect correlation. I feel an investment in silver will be better than gold for the next month. This may or may not be true. However, you should not invest if you are not comfortable.  The next few months are NOT the easy trades of the beginning of this year.  You may or may not therefore wish to do them. 

READER: Alternate Energy stocks, do you see a future for these stocks in the foreseeable? (2010/2011) 
HW: Yes, but currently like almost all stocks, I find them overvalued.  After Oil (energy) prices drop further, I will BEGIN to look at a slow accumulation.  Unless/Until Oil is $91, alternate energy stocks may not out perform. 

READER:  Do you have any advice where to put your stops? % or points?
HW:  This is the 64K question.  The most important point is your price target. Stops have two functions- one is to exit when you are wrong, the other is to protect profits and/or limit losses.
Many traders use 2-1 or 3-1 stops, while investors (except microcaps), usually use 10, 15 or 20% stops.  As a financial astrologer, I also use time stops.