1. SEPTEMBER MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS  

1. WSNW ALERT: This coming Week WSNW Reminder 9/10
“September 10^th to 16^th (10 & 16) is dangerous for the longs in all markets.  Whether it come to pass in China or with Oil or from someone else or at all will be interesting.”
Note: Global markets are on astrological Yellow and Red (10/16) alert ALL this week.
9/10 MOC DJI 9627    SPX 1044 NAS 2084
9/11 MOC DJI 9605    SPX 1042 NAS 2080 

IS GOLD GOING HIGHER INEVITABLE?
More investors are realizing oil prices may have gotten too high and cannot be justified by the current economic conditions. Even our P1 target of $62 is “expensive.”
Too few investors realize stock prices cannot be justified by the current economic conditions.
While the US$ over time is more likely to fall to .75 than rally above .82., .76 is fairly strong support.
Given the above view, gold may or may not continue to rally. 
 

TRADERS: Options expiration week craziness.  IF MARKETS DON’T CORRECT NEXT WEEK, THEN WE MAY BE FORCED TO REDUCE SHORTS. 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement price that you are willing to hold until 2011. 
Soberly prepare for the reality of an L or U shaped US economy for the next two to eight years.
FAIR VALUE:   DOW 8250 NAS 1650 SPX 880
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L1/S2

KEY DATES:    SEPTEMBER 15, 16, 17, 18
DJIA:                 9660 PIVOT
SPX:                   S1 1025 S2 1000 S3 980 1060 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:        2000 SUPPORT? 2100 RESISTANCE 
XAU:                 170 PIVOT  SUPPORT 145
DEC GOLD:      1000  PIVOT 950 SUPPORT  R1 1010  R2 1030 R3 1080
DEC SILVER:    15 SUPPORT 18 RESISTANCE
XOI:                   1010 PIVOT
DEC OIL:           70 PIVOT S1 68 S2 65 S3 62  

Market Marker Sentiment until 2010 is Less Volatility with Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays.
The US$ doesn't collapse & Commodities may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.  
7/21 PRE-ECLIPSE: DJIA   8915. SPX   954 & NASDAQ 1916
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       7 ~ FV 2 UV; 5 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2. We consider the Investment Risk of owning stocks not worth the Investing Reward of owning stocks this week- viewed, fundamentally, technically, seasonally and astrologically.
Only from a contrarian, and possible option games, and/or continued market manipulation viewpoints, is it favorable.

3. What's Behind the Gold Price Surge 

Our Intermediate term Upside targets for Gold and Silver are $1080 and $18.  However, given our Q4 2009 gold valuation is far lower, $930 to $974, we are not comfortable with current pricing.
We remain more or less idled on hold. 

4. “Investors should be prepared for some additional near- term corrective action. Stocks are no longer as cheap as they were several months ago. Conditions may be overbought and there is still a great deal of uncertainty over the outlook”
 Robert Doll, global chief investment officer, BlackRock
HW: D’accord. 

“There’s still a lot of skeptics. Plenty of people are still shorting stocks.” 
Edward Laux, head of trading, Cantor Fitzgerald
HW: I still believe it is the better way to bet.

"The week is likely to be a competition between better economic news for August and the start of the quarterly pre-announcement period."
John Canally, Economist, LPL Financial
HW: I thought the competition was between reality and economic wishful thinking. 

5.  Some critics worry stocks' big climb isn't on solid footing

 Nobody Liking Dollar With U.S. Deficits Makes Rogoff Favorite for Traders  

Current Market About to Lose Momentum 

6. READER: So many people hold your [gold] view (like GFMS CEO Paul Walker, Jay Taylor, UBS John Reade, Commonwealth Bank's David Moore, just to name a few I've read in the past two days) that I believe the market's surprise will be on the upside, with a breakout. 
A close above $1008.70 would undoubtedly lead to a test of the $1030.80 all-time high; I am not sure what happens there, but most will say it is an impenetrable top and thus it may fly through.
HW: It is some concern that my view is common.  On the other hand, we have some astrologically critical days around the 10^th and 16^th of September that may set things in motion.. 

READER: Will you still be saying when to buy oil & metals & gas?
HW: I think you can slowly accumulate natural gas positions by October and whenever under $2.75.
Oil I am not buying at this time, as that would imply I am bullish on the global economy.  At some point, Oil may reach $91, but at the moment, it is testing support at $67 and could easily drop (much) further.
Gold and Silver is tricky, and we are watching closely.  Before October,  I would own more Silver,. The key question is whether $16 becomes the floor or ceiling and ditto with gold at $1000. 

Re: The 10^th to 16^th (10 & 16) are the most dangerous for the longs in all markets.  Whether it come to pass in China or with Oil or from someone else or at all will be interesting
READER: Time will tell in the next 6 trading days.  Thanks again for the tips.
HW: 7 days- always give it an extra day. 

READER: I agree – I have had this time period [Mid September] for a long time and feel very spooked about it.
HW: This September time frame is what we have been waiting for. Markets are unbelievably far from reality as well. 

READER: China has their sextennial celebration on 10/1, and from what I hear are taking that even more seriously than they took the Olympics. Given that, I find it hard to believe that the Chinese market will seriously break before 10/6.
HW: While I wouldn’t expect Shanghai at 2200 before then, another test of 2700 (2550?), is not out of the question beforehand. 

READER: When you mention oil, do you mean oil going up, or down?
HW: We believe it is easier for Oil to drop than move up.
Fundamentally we are AWASH in oil. So really its a question of whether the US Dollar continues to fall.
Even if it holds steady oil will drop to $65 to $62 or lower.