1. JULY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS

1.                   CURRENT MARKET VALUATIONS &. MARKET RISKS

·        Fair Value: Dow 8000 NAS 1655 SPX 860

·        There is quite a lot of money on the sidelines.

·        Will profit margins be better than expected? If so, we don’t think by much.                      

·        What will forward guidance be? Caution should rule.                  

•    Has the (US) economy hit bottom?  No. 

BY OR BEFORE OCTOBER WHAT ARE THE CURRENT ODDS?
DOW 8000        99%
DOW 7900        98%
DOW 7800        92%
DOW 7600        75%
DOW 7200        62%
DOW 6666        35%
DOW 6500        30%
DOW 6400        25% 

Bottom Line:
While earnings this month could trigger a more decisive move up or down, we believe Markets will remain confusing and confused until later this Summer.
As for valuation, while today markets are not expensive, neither are they cheap. We DO expect them cheaper sooner, rather than later, this year.
 

GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Dangerously Delaying the Inevitable 

 
KEY DATES:    JULY 15, 16
DJIA:                8270 PIVOT
SPX:                860 SUPPORT?
NASDAQ:        1750 PIVOT
XAU:                135 PIVOT
AUGUST GOLD:915 PIVOT 880 SUPPORT   950 RESISTANCE
SEPT SILVER:  13 PIVOT S1 12.50 S2 12  S3 11.80
XOI:                           900 PIVOT
DEC OIL:          66 PIVOT 60 SUPPORT?  

The new Market Marker Sentiment has Less Volatility and Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays. The US$ doesn't collapse and Commodities may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       11 ~ FV 4 UV; 10 offer 4%+ Dividends 5 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2.  BUSINESS & BANQUETS
At FX-Week, we learned how old fashioned we are as “active” traders.  The definition of High-Frequency traders is an average holding time of 1 SECOND! 

Notes:
I agree with their general consensus of portfolio weighting of 3-5% in currencies as an asset class.
We are still avoiding trading financials, as the requirements to be successful today is not correct fundamental analysis, but political analysis! 

3.  We are expecting a strong fresh downward test of Gold this coming week with Oil’s continued weakness (plus appropriate astro)..  We await lower prices and/or more favorable seasonality before buying.
Note: However, we will be tempted to begin a slight counter trend trade/accumulation of Gold circa $880-$888 or Silver circa $11.80-$12. 

4.  “People have become a little bit too optimistic. People will be disappointed. Gradually over the summer and into the autumn we will move lower.”
Philippe Gijsels, senior structured equity strategist, Fortis Global Markets
HW:  Yes most definitely. 

 “People realize the economy isn’t as bright as expected. Over the next couple of weeks or even months, the stock market will trade sideways at best.”
Franz Wenzel, deputy director of investment strategy, Axa Investment Managers
HW: Expected by whom? Anyway, we agree “sideways at best.” 

“We’re going to see a temporary substantial improvement. I emphasize the words temporary and substantial.”
Martin Feldstein, the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research and professor of economics at Harvard University
HW: Temporary and modest will be more like it. 

5.  Analysis: Wall Street's spring rally has run out of steam 

Loss Of `Animal Spirits' May Prolong U.S. Recession, Roubini, Shiller Say 

Cash is king for investors‎ ‎ 

6. READER:  Can't help but wonder about how you might agree and/or disagree with this: The 3 Worst and 3 Best Sectors For Next Five Years
HW: I agree with 5/6.  I don’t agree with his extremely negative view on the European stock markets. 

READER: Is this a good time to accumulate gold and silver
HW: Soon. However an even better opportunity is likely later this Summer.
 

READER: What do you think are good prices to buy Gold and Silver?
Is buying commodities themselves better than buying companies?

HW:  While gold is tempting $880-$888 and Silver $11.80-$12, it is possible that prices COULD fall further.
As to your second question, that is a moving target. I will make my decision WHEN I am ready to begin to buy. 

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