WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK
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WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK: JULY 6, 2009
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER


1. JULY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS
 

1. WILL THERE BE AN ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN H2 2009 or 2010?
Depending on how you define the “new normal”, the answer varies. For the foreseeable future, we expect BOTH good and bad news and hence there will be continued arguments as to whether “the cup is half empty or half full”.   Be that as it may, there are plenty of economic challenges ahead that make many question whether the green shoots are edible plants or garden variety weeds! 

SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY SCORECARD:
DJIA     5/29/09   8500
            6/30/09   8447  
 

BOTTOM LINE: 
Astrologically and economically, it is FAR from over!
We would not be surprised to see test of Dow 8000 before, or not long after, earnings season begins next week!
 

HYDE PARK SOAP BOX: Hank Greenberg
Former AIG boss on how to respond to, and profit from, the financial crisis.
 

TRADERS: Thin, choppy markets i.e. clueless trading with a downward bias into the July earnings Season. Thereafter, a short rally is possible but I am unsure how probable. 

INVESTORS: My long term view is well known. Focus on protecting against downside risk and only buy and hold stocks with sustainable earnings at Deeply Discounted Value pricing.
Invest only in stocks at bargain basement price that you are willing to hold until 2011. 
Soberly prepare for the reality of an L (U?) shaped US economy for the next two to eight years.
 

FAIR VALUE:    DOW 8000 NAS 1600 SPX 850
LONG/SHORT PORTFOLIO:  L1/S1

 
KEY DATES:    JULY 6, 8
DJIA:                8270/8500/8776  PIVOTS
SPX:                920 PIVOT
NASDAQ:        1850  PIVOT
XAU:                145 PIVOT 130 SUPPORT 160 RESISTANCE
AUGUST GOLD:930 PIVOT 880 SUPPORT 980 RESISTANCE
SEPT SILVER:  14 PIVOT 13 SUPPORT R1 14.50  R2 15.50 R3 16

XOI:                  900 PIVOT  875 SUPPORT 940 RESISTANCE
DEC OIL:          70 PIVOT 62 SUPPORT 80 RESISTANCE  

The new Market Marker Sentiment has Less Volatility and Market Cross Currents.
Stocks Meander slightly ahead and favor defensive plays. The US$ doesn't collapse and Commodities
may not be needed as a safe haven panacea.
2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DJIA:                       8 ~ FV 3 UV; 7 offer 4%+ Dividends 4 offer 5%+ Dividends.

THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK. 

2.  We await better entries before buying or selling stocks. 

3.  Dollar to Rise Most Since 1981 by Year End, Best Currency Forecaster Says
HW: This view suggests potential headwinds ahead for gold and silver bugs. 

Last chance saloon for gold investors to jump in?

The currently stuttering gold price as the northern hemisphere enters the summer season, traditionally a weak time for the gold price, could, some experts believe be the last opportunity to buy gold before an autumnal surge.
HW: We are long term fans of tradition. 

According to our Cosmic Valuation model, gold’s Q3 2009 Fair Value is $917 and therefore today physical gold is slightly overvalued.
As for Silver, while we are intermediate and long term bullish, we are not yet ready to buy.  However, below $13.10-$13.25, we would no longer be comfortable being short either.

 

4. “We expect to see a correction in this market over the next three months that will bring the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index to between 800 and 850."
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist, S&P
HW: In other words, stocks will return to fair value or below before year end – I strongly agree with that view.
 

If you think that the Housing Market and Financials have bottomed, think again!”
Richard
Suttmeier, Chief Market Strategist, Valuengine
HW: We don’t disagree. 

“It’s nice that have had a bit of a bounce in the market, but there is still a wall of worry that can be climbed. The consolidation we have seen is not unreasonable, but the next few quarters are going to be an interesting test for sentiment.”

John Haynes, U.S. equities strategist, Rensburg Sheppards

HW: Agreed.

 

5. No return to normal for banks

“For a shareholder to translate survival into upside on stock prices and higher dividends is a big jump….Saying that they'll survive is not the same thing as saying they'll prosper.”

Time to Tame Inflation Is Before It Strikes

“Insurance is often most worth having when it seems least necessary.” 

Equity issues hitting market at record pace
Record levels of stock issuance by public companies over the past several weeks could come back to haunt the market and hurt investors, at least in the near term.

 

6. READER: I am a new silver subscriber. Not sure, but there is a recommended list of stocks to buy or sell? How can I see that list?
HW:  Some of our views are in our WSNW premium subscriber channel: http://www.afund.com/afundpremium.html.  Have you looked at that?

stions to LETTERS.
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