1 APRIL EARNINGS?  JULY EARNINGS? THEY ARE GONNA BE AWFUL!
We have not only the bleak earning news this quarter, but next as well. US bank earnings while up, is largely due to Mark to Market being replaced with Mark to Fantasy accounting.With the exception of pawn brokers, collection agencies and the like, which companies will report good earnings?  While there are pockets of prosperity such as low cost Oil and Gold producers, overall the world economy is bleak and will NOT magically improve short term.  Why should the economy bottom now given the U.S. May Keep Losing Jobs in Coming Months, Extending Worst Postwar Slump. How will this affect markets over time? I believe there is still one (or more) rolling bottom(s) ahead! 

What is next?  The SHOCK of how little revenue the IRS will collect by April 15^th. 

BOTTOM LINE: We are modesty bearish given that ALL the BAD news is NOT (yet) built into current market prices.
Sell, Distribute, Profit Protect or Write call options while the market is overpriced in April:

 
KEY DATES:    APRIL 8, 9
DJIA:                800 PIVOT
SPX:                840 SUPPORT? S1 825 S2 810 S3 800 R1 850 R2 860  R3 880
NASDAQ:        1380 SUPPORT 1500 RESISTANCE
XAU:                135 PIVOT120 SUPPORT 145 RESISTANCE
JUNE GOLD:    900 PIVOT 880 SUPPORT R1 908 R2 925 IR 940
MAY SILVER:  13 PIVOT 12.25 SUPPORT 
XOI:                 900 PIVOT
DEC OIL:         60 PIVOT 56 SUPPORT 65 RESISTANCE  

The current Market Marker Sentiment is Some worry, then bargain hunting, then return to worry.

2008 CLOSE:           DJIA   8776, SPX   903 & NASDAQ 1577
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                       12 ~ FV 6 UV; 13 offer 4%+ Dividends 9 offer 5%+ Dividends.
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
 
2. BUSINESS & BANQUETS
At the Very Independent Research Metals Conference last week, we enjoyed several base and precious metal company’s presentations. Three long time favorites presenting were:
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), our current favorite midcap gold, Virginia Mines (VIA-T), the first in class Quebec exploration microcap, and Alexco Resources (ACU) one of our favorite silver companies.  ACU I have been hoping to buy at $1 or better, but may have to pay as much as $1.10-$1.15 given I wish to begin accumulation before May.  

At the Biocentury Future Leaders in the Biotech Industry conference, we discovered one very interesting company: Infinity Pharmaceuticals (INFI).  Like ALL companies we are considering investing (not trading) these days. INFI has plenty of cash (or cash flow) into 2011! 
We also favorably reviewed the progress of Vivus (VVUS) whose Phase III Qnexa results on obesity are forthcoming soon. It is also Cash Rich.
Potentially promising and on Watch are Arca Biopharma (ABIO) and Regulus Therapeutics (Private). 

3.  Given Gold’s Fair Value is currently $908, and hence currently is UNDER VALUED, we are ALMOST ready to accumulate.  This will be done over the next 60 days.
Our current assumption is that Gold will trade above $875 and Silver $12 support on Friday.  If not, we will be buying at a lower price before May. :).

4.  “There is no magic fix for the economy.  We have had a few days without any bad news so people started to get optimistic. Trying to call the bottom for the market is impossible. We are not going to get anything sustainable until we get a solution to the financial system.”
Stephen Docherty, head of global equities, Aberdeen Asset
HW: A REAL solution, not more “Mark to Fantasy” accounting! 

“We have seen quite lot of indications that have stopped deteriorating, not so much at the company level but more on the economic front. “There is quite of lot of newsflow that is building a base for the market. Now it’s a case of what kind of recovery we can get.”

Kevin Lilley, fund manager, Royal London Asset Management,

HW: This view, while popular, is more propaganda than reality. 

“People are going to need to understand that the corrective process is not a short one, it’s not an easy one, and there’s only so much policy makers can do.”
Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist, Maria Fiorini Ramirez
HW: You mean I will have to wait more than one hour?! 

5. Peter J. Tanous Says It May Take Years for Stocks to Bounce Back 

Six reasons I am calling a bottom and declaring a new bull market 

Paul Krugman: China’s Dollar Trap 

6. READER: You continue to say only by QUALITY STOCKS with cash and little or no debt going forward to 2010/2011.  Does this mean the market is going be extremely volatility as in the past several months or will it be even more wild?  If this will be the case than GOLD seems to be a better
HW: Market volatility will continue in Q2 2009, whether more or less hardly matters.  As for gold investing, it is of interest as a hedge short term, and investment intermediate term.

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