1. JULY MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. ARE WE THERE YET: DOW 11K/10,800 BOTTOM or DOWN 10% MORE? 
Already, there are an increasing number of stocks that are attractive from a long term value perspective.  I believe they will be 15%-25% higher within 18 months to 2 years, or perhaps even earlier, in under 3 to 6 months.
From a trading perspective, Dow 10,800 is strong support. Can it be broken to see 10% lower or more first?  Yes! 
Previously we have recommended extremely high cash positions and waited until this Time and Price to BEGIN TO PUT our money to work. 
Note:  We still recommend high cash levels, as serious problems remain. When markets rally above Dow 11,600 we will begin to sell/short on a short term trading basis.
In the meantime, in ALL MARKETS, the Bulls and Bears will continue fighting. Hence we suggest Buying and Selling primarily at EXTREME levels.  

Until the August 1 Solar Eclipse, markets will remain extremely PIVOTAL: They can RALLY HARD or PANIC DROP. 
Few now believe the US economy is good, but that can be the basis for a long term investment bottom.  Should markets drop sharply, and there is panic selling, we are also ready to begin buying.
Alternately, should markets rally hard; we will sell trading positions beginning at SPX 1300, circa 1320-1330, we would be trading short. 

ASSUMING NO ISRAELI BOMBING OF IRAQ, it is about OIL more than corporate earnings, which most expect will be weak. 

OIL OVER $110 IS A DRAG ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
OIL OVER $125 IS NEGATIVE
OIL OVER $143 IS SERIOUS DAMAGE FOR GLOBAL ECONOMIES. 

After Monday, we foresee two weeks of astrologically negative times for OIL. Should Oil stay above $136 by the end of the month, we will not only reduce our Oil shorts, but re-evaluate and most likely take a nice long vacation in August! 
 

KEY DATES:     JULY 15, 18
DJIA:                11000 PIVOT 11800 SUPPORT? 12600 RESISTANCE
SPX:                 1240 PIVOT 1220 SUPPORT 1300 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:         2225 PIVOT
XAU:                 185 PIVOT 200 RESISTANCE
AUGUST GOLD:960 PIVOT 
XOI:                  1480 PIVOT
AUGUST OIL:    141 PIVOT 130 SUPPORT 150 RESISTANCE 

The Market Marker Sentiment is OIL on the BRAIN until October 3. 
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                       3 ~ FV 3 UV; 10 offer 4%+ Dividends 4 offer 5%+ Dividends.
Looking ahead, my question is whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?  
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.

2. From a long term perspective, there are an increasing number of stocks worth buying for the long term.

Two weeks ago, we recommended five to watch: Valero (VLO), Pfizer (PFE) , Nova Gold (NG),  Bank of America (BAC), and the Amex Gold Miners Index (GDX).

We recommend first buying BAC, VLO and PFE id you did not last week. Should they drop another 10%, we would do a second long term buy. 

Last week we emailed to WSNW subscribers:

While markets are VERY scary and certainly can drop much further 1) if oil stays at record levels and/or 2) Israel invades IRAQ, there are some compelling LONG TERM BUYS. One is Bank of America- BAC: We think given its high dividend, it is worth buying here circa $22, even if it drops another 10-15%. We suggest buying just 1/3 or ½ of a position now. It may take up to 18 months for it to return 20% plus, or it may take just a few weeks. Either way a value buy and yes we know financials will be in trouble for several years, but 50-60%of the bad news is already built in.  That is why its only a nibble.  It if quickly rallies 20-25% take or lock in profits.

THERE ARE POTENTIALLY MANY OTHER BARGAINS; In August, we plan to update several premium web posts.  

If, for example, GM does not go bankrupt, then it is a bargain. We hope to also find time to review astrologically a lot of these “challenged” stocks to see which are worth the risk.

In the meantime, we only recommend stronger companies that are being unloved for the wrong reasons – “guilt by association.”

3. Will gold reach $1000 this month or retreat to retest $900?  I don’t know.  While we DO expect $1000 before February 2009, it may NOT be Summer 08.  If gold does NOT drop over the next two weeks, we will start buying undervalued microcaps.

Our original plan was to begin to buy gold the beginning of June, July, August & September.   To date, I am unsure whether that will be better than our current action plan to hold off. 

Time will tell if we were right, or late to the party. But even, if so, we expect plenty of small cap udnervalued bargains – see, for example, the companies presenting at our upcoming Triple Gold Conference at the New York Yacht Club this week.

4. "A bailout of Fannie and Freddie would not be good news. But I don't feel it would lead to an Armageddon-type scenario."

Don Wordell, manager, RidgeWorth MidCap Value fund

HW: I disagree. It would be “good” news on two fronts:

First, the US housing mortgage market would be stronger.

Second, stock investors would learn [the hard way] to become more risk-adverse.

"Everybody is totally negative on financial stocks, and until housing prices stabilize, and people feel like there is liquidity for these firms, the market will continue to take them down. It's interesting the way the shorts have gotten -- it's almost like a group of piranhas. Something in the water is hurt, and all of the sudden it has 10,000 piranhas on it."

Jim Huguet, co-chief executive, Great Companies

HW:  Everyone?  Selectively I am long term bullish.  SMART distressed investing is the name of the best game in town.

“Risk aversion is biting the dollar given the concern surrounding Fannie and Freddie. There's still a lot of dollar-negative sentiment in the market.''

Steven Englander, a currency strategist, Lehman Brothers Holdings.

HW: Short term we are contrarian bullish, although intermediate term bearish.

5. Survival Ideas for a Bear Market

Investors set for another tough earnings season

Make friends with a bear: ETFs for down markets

Both retail and institutional investors are starting to embrace them, but handle them carefully 

6. READER: As I remember you said some month's ago that Dow could reach 16000 during Autumn, before the president election.
HW: Not me!!! 

READER: I’ve been long almost four years. My broker friends have told me numerous times to get out, including you in may. I think energy is the new gold and could spikemore than Wall Street believes. Recall the old saw, he who sells what isn't hissen, must buy it back or go to prison, or the other is the mkt can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid.
HW: I was also taught that “it is not over until the Fat Lady sings!” 

READER: RE: Subject: with markets testing 11,000 times to BUY WHAT YOU THINK IS VALUE…
Good afternoon, the party is over!!!!!!!!!!!  Have fun.HW: In New York (aka markets) there is ALWAYS a party somewhere

HW:  They may.  Not sure bad news, as a positive for the US housing market, although bad for individual investors. The KEY question with all financial companies today is their risk of bankruptcy.  If substantial as with these two, high risk/reward.  If not, like BAC and CMB, I believe good long term investments at the “right” price. 

READER: Crude Oil : I agree ^ DJI can test the crucial level of 10800 in July'08 if Crude Oil stays above US $ 140.00+ pbbl. There is a strong possibility of Crude Oil testing US $ 150.00 pbbl level in July'08.
Crude Oil price has become such an issue for the past six months that everybody is linking 'investment parameters' to the price of this speculative commodity. We have been saying the same since Feb'07 when the price of Crude was only US $ 54.00+ pbbl. Anyway - I still advise 'not to go short' on Crude Oil. Rather buy on sharp dips.
Gold : We should buy Gold only when IMF starts dumping the yellow metal in global bullion markets. Be patient on Gold. Do not be in a hurry. I do not know how much physical Gold IMF will sell in the near future. The range to start buying Gold is around US $ 840.00 pto.
HW: We agree on gold, but if so, then oil will be a lot lower at that time.
READER: Did you buy Crude Oil when it tested US $ 134.50+ Tuesday 8th July'08 ??? I hope you guys are not short on Crude. Pls see excerpts of my e mail of 7th July'08 on Crude Oil and Gold.
Anyway - I still advise 'not to go short' on Crude Oil. Rather buy on sharp dips.
It is a matter of one or two weeks from today Saturday 12th July'08 and you will see NYMEX Crude Aug'08 Futures @ US $ 150.00+ pbbl. Even dated Spot Brent may rise to US $ 150.00+ pbbl in London on ICE within the next two weeks. Strike at M/s. PETROBRAS, Brazil which could cut supplies by 1,50,000 million bpd. This strike starts in Brazil's entire 'Campos Basin' on Monday 14th thru 17th July'08. Brazil's 'Campos Basin' produces about eighty percent of Brazil's total Crude oil. 
Iran is under pressure from USA to suspend its missile testing program. Also intense pressure from USA now to stop plans to 'enrich uranium' at Natanz Nuclear Fuel Complex. I feel it is a matter of time - Israel backed by USA will attack Natanz and Ishafan Nuclear facilities in Iran. This will happen before Jan'09.    
HW: Good trading  so far , but no we did not.  We are short and ADDED at $141. I believe next week and the week after, Oil will drop.
If not then, we reduce or end that bet.  Did you see Natural Gaso from 13.50 to below 12?  Unfortunately, just one our smaller bets but $125 Oil this month quite possible.
READER:  All I can say is - You and your partners are brave men who are short on Crude Oil!
First US $ 150.00+ pbbl and then maybe a floor of US $ 130.00 pbbl. My predictions on Crude Oil since the year 2001 have been correct. You are aware of the same. Forget a price level of US $ 125.00 in July'08. I will stop forecasting on Crude Oil if it tests US $ 125.00 pbbl in July'08 and I mean it Sir. 
Please for heaven's sake do not short this Monster. I will not repeat this again. I stick to what I predict and that is the reason for my credibility amongst my associates. I HAVE BEEN SAYING NOT TO SHORT CRUDE OIL FROM US $ 90.00 pbbl levels. WAIT AND YOU SHALL SEE A LEVEL OF US $ 150.00+ IN JULY'08. US $ 180.00+ by Q1 2009.