1. MARCH MARKETS
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS
3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB
6. LETTERS 

1. BE PREPARED FOR MARKETS TO REMAIN WILD/CRAZY FOR SOME TIME
Given the current Zeitgeist is Worry and HEAVY Recession Fears, days such as Friday February 29 are not unexpected.  Even those who do not agree with me that we are already in a recession, mostly fear we are unfortunately “close” to a recession.
Any long term investing between now and May must therefore be done in the context of “Climbing the Wall of Worry.”  Given there is also some unfavorable astro for NASDAQ in Q2 2008, and for the Dow in May, we will be market neutral by/after the next FOMC meeting.

We continue to advise investors to
1) Have plenty of cash
2) Remain Cautious 

BUY SELECTIVELY

• Strong growth
• Increasing profit margins
• Special Situations
• Distressed investing whenever other are too panicked: “Buy where there is blood on the Street.” 
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GUEST HYDE PARK SOAPBOX John Silvia, chief economist, Wachovia
“Bernanke has really over weighted the economic risks relative to inflation.”
HW: It is sad, but not unexpected!
 

ASTRODATES
3/7 NEW MOON 12:14 pm ET
3/20 Vernal Equinox 1:49 am ET
3/21 FULL MOON 2:40 pm 

 
KEY DATES:    March 5, 7
DJIA:               12236 PIVOT
SPX:                1325 PIVOT 1300 SUPPORT 1350 RESISTANCE
NASDAQ:         S1 2250 S2 2225 S3 2200 R1 2300 R2 2331 R3 2375
XAU:                 200 PIVOT
ARPIL GOLD:    963 PIVOT S1 950 S2 940 S3 930 R1 980 R2 1000 R3 1080
APRIL OIL:        100 PIVOT 

New Market Marker Sentiment is:  Worry and HEAVY Recession Fears.
DON’T BUY AND HOLD: BE LIQUID WITH A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO!
2007 CLOSE:           DJIA 13264, SPX 1468 & NASDAQ 2655
2006 CLOSE:           DJIA 12463, SPX 1418 & NASDAQ 2415
2005 CLOSE:           DJIA 10717, SPX 1248 & NASDAQ 2205
DIJA:                        3 ~ FV 0 UV; 6 offer 4%+ Dividends 3 offer 5%+ Dividends.
Looking ahead, my question is whether 2008 will show less than 2% growth or be a classical recession?  
THINK SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: FOCUS ON PROTECTING AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
 

2. GreenMoney Journal World's Top 20 Sustainable Stocks
HW: I believe it is always nice to own some of these stocks both for the good of the planet and long term profit too! 

SMART MONEY INVESTING is both 1) VERY selective and likes 2) strong growth and high profit margins.
Being a Top-Down investor, I select most of most stocks in upcoming favored sectors.  One stock we like is the engineering and construction firm Fluor (FLR).  FLR had a record annual profit in 2007 and the company outlook is that business looks better than expected for 2008 year as well. FLR is particularly strong in energy-related work -- from building offshore oil and gas platforms to expanding refineries. Business is booming thanks to high oil and gas prices as well as global trends that favor its infrastructure and power generation, mining and maintenance projects. If markets panic, FLR should be a good long term buy. The right price is the question.  I would most happily add/start 110 to 125.. 

Big Jump Forecast In Health Spending
Health-care spending will devour an expanding share of the US economy during the next decade, accounting for nearly 20 percent of the national gross domestic product by 2017, government officials forecast.  Clearly there will be winners in this sector.
While I have yet to finish our WSNW premium post S: 2008 HEALTH, there are still many good ideas to research. 

3.  Oil Prices: It's Not About the Oil

Quantum's Jim Rogers says US 'out of control'
Mr Rogers told delegates to the CLSA investment forum that the prices of all agricultural products would “explode” in coming years and that the price of gold, which hit an all-time high of $964 an ounce yesterday, will continue its surge to as much as $3,500 an ounce. 

“The TD Sequential™ model also is supportive of a pullback, sending the same signal it did when the January peak was established. We no longer expect a return to support in the mid-$80s because of last week’s breakout, and instead would look for stabilization near the 50-day moving average in the low $90s….. Our target remains $975/oz. based on a measured move price projection from a previous breakout. We believe this will be reached over the next few weeks, but first would look for a pullback for a better buying opportunity given the distance to support at the 50-day moving average (approx. $883/oz.) and the cloud model.”
Katie Townshend MKM Partners February 25, 2008
HW:  We agree due to fundamentals, technicals and astro. But I still think oil could drop more, especially if/when OPEC reduces oil output.
I see gold trading as more about the dollar and oil than gold itself.  Oil’s big day is this Wednesday OPEC meeting and 10:30 Oil inventory report.  Friday, may be a pause or short term bottom in US Dollar weakness (if not earlier).  How likely is it that February’s employment report is worse than economists anticipate? Although, if the news is bad and the US Dollar and/or gold has strengthened beforehand, we could see gold up and the US Dollar down then. 

BOTH BLACK AND YELLOW GOLD INVESTING/TRADING NOTE: 
Regardless of March price action, I FORECAST BOTH OIL AND GOLD WILL BE DOWN IN APRIL.  

4. “The drumbeat of economic news has been unrelentingly bad. The recession scenario is looking more and more credible. Investors try to ignore the underlying trends — credit conditions and economic indicators — and jump on anything that says this will go away soon, And then you get hit on the head with the more serious underlying issues in the credit markets and the economy and you realize that the bullish news just isn’t enough.
Edward Yardeni, an investment strategist

HW: This explains Friday’s price action. But if you don’t have a short term trading horizon, but an intermediate/long term investment strategy, the view is different.

 
Recession fears are weighing one equity markets. We haven’t left the credit crunch behind us. It’s unclear what we are going t see in further write downs.”
Juergen Lukasser, head of equities, Constantia Privatbank
HW: By or before April.

“We had a series of booms and it seems to me they are now over. As a result, we’re going to see a period of slower growth than in the past.
Edmund Phelps, Nobel laureate economics professor, Columbia University
HW: Duh! 

4. Buffett’s State of the World: There’s Folly in Wonderland 

Anatomy of a Financial Meltdown

Bernanke's recession is here: 11 reasons it will last till 2011

6. READER: Boone Pickens was on CNBC on Friday [2/22] and was saying oil was over bought and he was a short seller.
HW: Yes Within a month or two, if not by this Wednesday OPEC meeting and 10:30 oil report, I am betting he is right on the money. 
READER: Too much speculation pushed oil higher but those speculative buyers may get burned sooner than later….
HW: I have been betting with those thoughts beginning with the February 20^th eclipse. 

READER: As you write in your latest WSNW, Oil seems will drop in end of month but as you see currently Oil move to Record high around 101.5 today (in  Asia time)? Any opinion of this? How do you see Gold in March to July 2008? In last 5-7 years, in these period, Gold will go bottom, and rebound again around August to January next year. Do you see this pattern will come again in uncertainty period like 2008?
HW: Oil is way overpriced in my view.  If it goes up much past Wednesday (OPEC/10:30) time and/or price, we would reduce/cover our short term shorts.
As for gold, I believe there will be a fair degree of similarity to the seasonal pattern. The big caveat is Ben’s printing press and apparent inability to acknowledge inflationary pressures. 

READER: Would you mind giving me your opinion on the gold price, do you think it will reach $1000 in the next few days and if you see a sharp correction if it were to hit this target?
HW: We are still short term bearish on gold. However, we think of oil and the US dollar more.
We believe the US dollar under 74 (short term) is Under priced.  We believe Oil over $85 (short term) is Over priced.  We believe gold (short term) over $897 is Over Priced.
If oil stays above 100 much past next Wednesday’s Oil report and OPEC meeting, then gold will hit and hold 1000 and perhaps try for 1050-1080.
We took our profits on intermediate term physical gold (not stocks) earlier and remain Short Term Bearish, Intermediate Term Neutral and Long Term Bullish.

This could change next week if commodity markets continue to rally.
I did NOT expect 1000 gold in H1 2008 but in H2 2008.                  

Obviously we could be wrong here. If you are long gold, I believe you should protect by taking SOME profits or locking in.
That way, even if gold moves higher, you are fine.  This is all UNCHARTED territory. I cannot answer with the highest confidence as I could in January/Feb and also December 2008.
Bottom Line: There is both Risk to gold longs and High Risk to gold shorts!

READER: You lost the bet Sir - $ 78 to $ 80 against $ 101+ at NYMEX by end Feb'08. Do you agree with my level of $ 105 soon or you still are bearish?
HW: We shorted more oil yesterday $102+.  We may lose one battle, but intend to win the war by our revised MidMarch. However, we could be wrong, but not anything I wish to bet on.
READER: What level do you expect on the downside in the coming weeks?
HW: P1 98 P2 95 P3 92 maybe 88 or $85.
Of course if Oil remains high for a few more days, we are early and not right, but I know the US recession is here and there is an oversupply of Oil Short Term.

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