GOLD

Fair Value for April Gold is currently $1012

Current Probability of 1200 gold again before 2011 70%

Current Probability of 1500 gold before 2011 31%

Current Probability of 2000 gold before 2011 6%

GOT GOLD?

AFUND H1 2010 FORECAST

1.A mixed picture for Gold but positive for Silver

2.Late Fall/Winter 2010 Silver Astrology is Very strong.
2010 The Year of Silver Part II (Part I 2006- ETF launch)

SUPPLY/DEMAND FACTORS

•In 2010, Central Banks are now close to becoming net buyers of gold, while mine output continues to decline.

Comments:

•Gold/XAU ratio 7.15 well above classic buy signal of 5
•Gold/Silver ratio of 66 too high – should be < 60 (58).
•Short term Gold Negatives: Mixed Astro & Seasonality.
•Short term Silver Positives: Astrology.

GOLD INVESTING & TRADING

INVESTMENT

•Hold Gold as both an investment & hedge.
•Gold is the Cheapest insurance against both declining US dollar and inflation.
Gold and precious metals can perform well in either an inflationary or deflationary environment.
•Strong Demand underlying from Chinese India Middle East Japanese, Russia, and smart money US & Europe.

TRADING

Gold Trading Targets often come earlier and revised higher.

What is unusual and new is an EXTREMELY wide 2010 trading range.

2010 GOLD TRADING RANGE $960 - $1240.

2010 SILVER TRADING TARGET $21. ($12.80 - $26 range).

2010 TRADING TARGETS: GOLD $1200 (achieved) & SILVER $21 ($26)

Current Gold Fair Value $1012

Gold is a commodity, currency, inflation measure & crisis metal

Q1 2010 Gold FV: $1012

Commodity FV: $912

Currency FV: $988

Inflation Metal FV: $916

Crisis FV: $1228

Later in 2010, we believe Gold trading will become less dependent on Oil and US$.

US$ wide range $.74 to $.82.
Note: Trading Target is 82 but Fair Value only .7750 (was .88 12/5/2008). Despite short term strength in the US$, we expect to see .77-.78 again and possibly even .74 later this year. TRADERS: Reverse at .82 (80.50+).

Oil wide range bound $58-$91.

Silver Fair Value average is $15 as an Investment and $12 as a Commodity

Note: Silver Investment Fair Value fluctuates between $14.28 -$17.40.

1. Gold and Silver are recommended multiyear investments for both wealth preservation and wealth creation.

2. Ben Bernanke was and will continue to be great for Gold

HYDE PARK SOAPBOX

If $400 gold indicates the presence of inflation, how can there be $900 gold and virtually none? Must it be $1200 before the talking TV heads acknowledge what every living and breathing American knows: Living in the REAL world costs are far HIGHER than the official US government statistics pretend!

2010 Update: $1200 wasn’t high enough. Must it be $1500? 2000?

“Conservative investors are advised to have a portion of their savings allocated to physical bullion, while speculative investors are advised to own shares of carefully selected mining companies, both domestic and international.”
Carlo Besenius, CEO Creative Global Investments

High Gold Prices Here To Stay

“When gold hit $700 people said it would fall. Wrong. And wrong again at $1000.”

Outlook for silver looks bright this winter

HW: We continue to recommend accumulating on weakness, ideally circa $15.

Gold forecast: Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff or Roubini?