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1. MARKET PERSPECTIVE
2. THE ASIAN MARKETS COLLAPSE
3. TECH STOCKS
4. IHTIF
5. LETTERS
1. On Friday I realized the REAL reason the stock market was down: October is the ONLY month mutual fund managers can sell stocks without the risk of being fired! :) But let's keep perspective, at 7715 the Dow is only 6.59% off its 8259 high of August 6, and still up 19.65% for the year.
We are mostly trading Bonds shorts next week and patiently waiting for market opportunities on both the long and short side, which this last Friday's market proved can be a profitable strategy. So while the markets can test P2-7600, I don't expect a crash Monday. However, if I am wrong and Hong Kong collapses next week, be prepared to say bye bye market!!!!!
Smith Barney recommended Disney as a buy on Friday. We are suggested shorting AGAIN just shy of 85 thank you. Check Disney's horoscope. I believe they are 6-9 months too early with this buy.
KEYDATE: Oct. 31 - Halloween New Moon
STOCKS: DISNEY: TRADING SELL 84-85 IBM: TRADING BUY 95-98
BONDS: SHORT FLIGHTS TO QUALITY 116:28 - 117.10
GOLD: Accumulate next two weeks ~$300
DIJA: 7600-8050
2. As readers know, we closed our Hong Kong shorts on the 23rd (Alert #19) and reversed and went long for the Sun's entry into Scorpio and were rewarded with 718.04 points, or 6.9% by Friday close at 11144.34. So we are now trading (not investing) bulls until 13,000+. I disagree with those that are predicting the Hang Seng could still drop as low as 8,500 points within the next week or so.
From ITS ABOUT TIME Chris Carolan [spiralc@ix.netcom.com] Our Spiral Calendar commentary from some time ago has aged well. "July 1997 (hand over) may come and go without any negative repercussions in the Hong Kong stock market. From a Spiral Calendar standpoint, it is November of that year that one should watch out for." That analysis was written in August 1995, and every issue of our publication since has contained the following information. "Hang Seng, Nov. 16-25...Crisis?" That time window ought to mark the final low.
3. I am giving my Common/Market Sense Tech Stock comments in this issue; and in the next issue Cosmic Sense (Astrology). Personally, I believe Nasdaq would be overpriced at 1000. So obviously I find few compelling buys in advance of at least a 30% correction, although I may consider a first buy at 1200 when I get the opportunity within the next 7-10 months.
COMMON/MARKET SENSE IN TECHNOLOGY STOCKS
AOL: No customer loyalty, may flirt with a 100 but short till $60; 40- possible.
COSFF: Success depends on their horoscope: if good, start bottom fishing.
CPQ: Great company; trading buy on big dips; invest after market correction.
DEC: Decent but not well run - possible rerun to 52 week lows. Sell.
HWP: B- grade; multi-year highs in place, but better shorts in tech sector.
IBM: Well run; trading buy on dips, but don't invest long term over $80.
INTC Sell above $80, first trading buy $65-$68. Sell on rallies until next summer
MSFT Insider selling and ridiculous over $100. Short 137-139.
NOVL: Great 1998 play - Buy under $10 -- IBM/SUNW buy out merger coming?
NSCP: Will be covering year long short in the next 2 months
ORCL: Good company and January play; may take out 97 highs
SUNW: Accumulate on dips, a strong industry player
Next issue: Tech Stocks: Cosmic Sense (astrology)
4. INTERNATIONAL HIGH TECH INDUSTRIES will be a Nasdaq small cap stock next week: trading symbol IHTIF. We will comment next issue on their first trading chart: I hope it is a good one as technically a quick double is easily possible.
5. This month Montgomery released a survey of their mutual funds investors which found the average investor was looking for a 34% YEARLY return over the next 10 years. Consider: If this is correct, the Dow would be about 151,000 (no typo!) and market capitalization would grow from about $10 trillion to $180 trillion
HW: Who said investors are greedy? Shades of Albania before 2010 (when baby boomers try to collect) if right. Fortunately I don't believe the Cosmos will permit such insanity.
<< Just want to ask in Alert #19, you suggested to buy Hong Kong, do you mean it's the right time to buy the stocks you recommended (Hutchinson Whampoa, and HSBC Holdings)? Or it's only short term trade as I notice the downward pressure is still significant due to the pressure built up in currency market.
HW: Previously we advised against buying under 12,000. For us, this is primarily an intermediate term trade that we will probably sell at 13,000- 13,400. I recognize it COULD go to 10,000 or even 8,000 in a slaughter, and even then we forecast within 3 years, it will be 14,000+. So this depends on how you like to trade/invest. Certainly we are glad we were out of Asia these past few weeks, so we are prepared to buy here and again and again if it goes lower.
Think the Hang Seng dive will trigger beginning of the major correction in the US? And with Saturn heading towards the opposition to the NYSE natal Jupiter would you agree that some intense dark clouds are ahead?
HW: Well I thought it has been correcting since August when US markets topped. You may be right, but this is not my bet. Moreover, I don't call it "dark clouds" if the DIJA retraces 15-30% -- it will be a GOOD omen economically and foresaging my forecast for a moderate recession in 1998-1999. The alternative is a MASSIVE depression in the next decade which I hope is fortunately avoidable thanks to both Alan and The Cosmos.
Tuesday & Friday, listen to our ABS radio program TRADING BY THE STARS
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