Wall Street, Next Week is a weekly Email/Fax newsletter @$300 annually.
New subscriber Intro - $99 for 3 months.
Note: One week delayed posting on www.afund.com and AOL.
1. THE ROADRUNNER MARKET
2. CADBURY
3. EK & MO BUYS
4. LETTERS
1. A little over a year ago, the Dow close of 5349.51 (7/15/96) - Amazing. This is a roadrunners market and our friend is 10' off the cliff at DJIA 8000+. It is our view there is a strong likelihood of a SUCCESSFUL PENETRATION of 8000 on/by August 1. We intend to recommend OEX puts in our trading alert(s) next week. Monday, we are shorting the bond market to break 115 down to 114.10 OB. Obviously if this occurs, the stock market will retreat.
2. Chris Cadbury: "short interest ratio fell 12.3% from 7.34 days in mid-June to 6.41 days on Jul. 15, 1997. Such a large monthly drop is dangerous. Similar drops were announced about a week before the 1987 crash and almost a month before the start of the 1990 bear market. Perhaps you know the old Wall Street adage which says, "The bull market is not over until the shorts are run in" .
Chairman Greenspan's bullish remarks and the better-than-expected second quarter earnings reports have had most of their effect on the market. If the downward momentum that occurred in the three sessions before Mr. Greenspan spoke starts to return, all traders will be advised to establish short positions."
3. EK- We are looking to trade/ buy in August under 62; if you are a bull , 66 OB will make money if you are also right about the market. MO 35-38 is an attractive buy, should this opportunity present itself by the Fall.
4. Seriously tho, are we now 20 feet off the cliff OR were we going so fast that he safely made the other side OR is this merely twin peaks before Alan takes the hot air away (ie, the wonder bra fails)?
HW: Obviously we are betting on his falling down.
Since 8020 didn't shake u out before and we are basically same place (or less depending on which index and whether using closes only or intraday highs) does one short, cover, or place stop (& where)?
HW: Depends on "one's philosophy". Mine is Cosmic Value coupled with the fact I like to sleep at night. So I trade longs, but hold SELECTIVE shorts e.g. Disney. However, whether trading long or shorts, you should use stops. Commission costs are relatively cheap these days and certainly cheaper than holding a losing position too long!!!! As to the broad market, depends on the risk/reward. Using a 3-1 as a general rule and Taking cover near but NOT at obvious technical floors/ ceilings - 8020, 8111 and Using astrology to pinpoint pivot times e.g next Monday-->Tuesday, Friday is my best advice.
<< I do need more info. on financial astrology a.s.o., as I'm trying to investigate some "black" points that I do have. Can you help me?
HW. 1. Read my Book INVESTING BY THE STARS;
2. See our weblink area and check out other financial astrology sites listed there;
3. Call for a consultation if appropriate.
<< I thought you wanted to buy EK under 60 after July 30 or Aug 1?
HW: I do, but the market won't let me yet! Do you think there will be more than a 5% correction?
HW: YES
What would it take for you to turn bullish? (I mean why fight the tape.) If there is no inflation then could we have disinflation / deflation and how would that effect gold and the stock market and bond market?
HW: I may turn contrarian bullish when there is blood in the streets, but certainly not above 6950, and probably not until at least 6351. UNTIL then, I will be a patient bear raider. Note: Jupiter/Neptune (irrational exuberance: of January 1997 is OLD cosmic news. Saturn/Neptune coming next year and that is what knocked out the Real Estate boom of the 1980's. However, I don't think I have to be that patient. In the meantime I will buy selective STOCKS but NOT the broad market. except as an occasional hedge against short positions.
1. DIRECTIONAL DAY JULY 18
2. T, DIS, EK
3. LETTERS
1. While our first directional day July 3rd was up and hence the first half of the month, you will have noticed July 18 was a big down day. Hence we are rather bearish for the second half of the month - surprise-surprise. Next week we have Alan Greenspan and IBM earnings. Should IBM have poorer than expected earnings, watch out DOW. No matter what Alan says or does not say, until the next FOMC meeting on the 19th, there will be many nervous bonds.
2. We added ATT to our strong short list, especially the first week in August, so unless they pull a rabbit out of their hat, 32 OB here we come. Disney is becoming more and the more the sick man of the DOW. We continue to avoid such mice ridden stock. You could have guessed, now that almost everyone hates EK, it starts to appear on my potential buy list. Well not this week, but August 1 on, we expect a quick 10% rebound. Our potential play is NOT from 66 where it closed, but 62 OB and between the 23rd and 30th of July.
3. I am also still curious how much you vary your investment size during times of lower performance i.e. when you are in a down cycle in trading performance how much do you attribute it to stressful outer planet aspects (or key progressions) in your chart? How would you deal with a time-period where you would have such tough transits? Do you try to anticipate what type of trading mistakes you might make during such a time period? For Example, since you are a Leo you will be (or have been) facing the opposition aspects of Jupiter and Uranus to your natal Sun. Do you think that this could be a time when you might be over-confident (Jupiter) or get too ego-involved (Sun in Leo) with your positions? Could your trading be more inconsistent (Uranus) or could you be more inclined to be a contrarian (Uranus/Sun) at this time?
HW: Obviously one is more cautious. I tend to be more systematic and less discretionary at such times. One of my trading partners had Mercury-Neptune square Wednesday and Thursday last week. We lost money NOT ONLY when I was miscalled the bond market on Wednesday but even on Thursday when I called it RIGHT, we made NO money.
Goodness gracious great balls of fire, when is this thing going to correct? Saw a report that suggest we might be in a deflationary economy and that gold might go to 1976 low just above $100.00 (Robert Prechter). He suggests this price in his book "At the Crest of the Tidal Wave". I sure hope he is wrong or at least we see $110 on the XAU.
HW: Well as you know, 110 on the XAU is our P1 target.
Does Astro Technical Analysis suggest direction or is it a better Oscillator indicating turning points? Is there just to much momentum to fight the tape? Sure we might get a correction but maybe a correction that is deep and short? Maybe down 10%, 15%, 20%, or even more and then a rally that takes the market back to new highs or DOW 10,000 and more...
HW: Turning points are obviously the #1 strength of Astrological Timing. Duration and Intensity next. As to direction, that is the weakest and often requires backup from technical analysis.
1. GMTA
2. OPTIONS EXPIRATION WEEK
3. RED CHIPS
4. LETTERS
1. When Biggs, Soros and Weingarten agree a correction is coming, watch out BULLS. Will it be 10%- 7200; 20% 6400 or more? Was 7991 the top? This week we may see 8020 a TRIPLE SELL FOR US- perhaps the top of the decade? Anyway the Risk/Reward is excellent as a short term short and Chris's numbers for Monday are SP 920, stopping out at 925.
2. Fresh shorts Friday were TMX at 54 1/2. We expect the Wednesday inflation news to be ******UPSETTING******** Bonds could fall to 113 level and rock the market. Tuesday, after Intel's split and before its report, we are shorting Intel for a Thursday forward play to 144 OB. A Rock and Roll Week ahead with options expiration and Full Moon Saturday. Last week we were pleased that Gold (XAU) returned 9% as well as that Disney is more and more beginning to look like the Sick man of the DOW- P1 73, P2 69
3. While we are bearish on Hong Kong SHORT TERM, there is reason for China Bullishness longer term. Review the horoscope of the HSI Index of 32 Red Chips: June 16, 1997 10 am Hong Kong. Our preliminary top 3 choices for our Portfolio 2000: Shanghai Industrial Holdings, Oriental Metals and Founder (Hong Kong). We don't recommend BUYING this yet, as Hong Kong is on a major sell for us, however we recommend adding them to your tracking portfolios at this time.
4. If any bull asks you for an unsolicited tip, suggest a coastal California bank stock. If there is an earthquake and the banks fall into the sea, their stocks should skyrocket since the quake was already factored into their price.
HW: As good as reason as any to BUY any Bank stock at today's valuations!
I would like to trade stocks for a living, and I am studying for my Series 7. After reading your book, I want to learn much more about Astrology. I will be checking my charts before signing up for the test and beginning my new career! How much for an astrological financial potential stock reading??
HW: ALWAYS a good idea. My fee for personal financial charts is currently $3,000 and up, but you should be able to find good vocational astrologers locally in the $150-$300 range.
1. JULY 4
2 JULY DIRECTIONAL DAYS
3. LETTERS
1. As this is a holiday weekend, this issue will be rather brief. July 4th Holiday week continued its tradition of being quite bullish. We used it to add Disney and TOY shorts. NCR remains comfortable for us (on the short side) and we closed one VERY successful Intel trade but as it did not get to 146 last week, plan on re-entering Monday or Tuesday, depending on general market conditions.
2. As we are quite bearish for July (5%), we were concerned, but not surprised that July 3 one of the two directional days for July (the other the 18th, the day before the Full Moon) was strongly up. Does this indicate a continuation of the bullish trend and a 8000 DIJA in July, or just the effects of a short trading day ahead of a bullish holiday. We are closely watching the trigger and will not hold any substantial loss past Tuesday. We are watching several potential crisis e.g. Clinton, Mexico and Hong Kong and Note: Bonds getting close to 114 short term sell area. However, July earnings will be major focus and perhaps even some concern for FOMC August 19th meeting. Finally for the record, we raised our trading buy on IHI from $1 CD to $1 US in July, no slippage.
3. Regarding the market, I prefer not to fight the tape. Although I believe the market is overvalued, this could go on for sometime. I am not going to sell all my investments in the US market due to tax $$. I am more concerned with asset allocation for the necessary diversification. I like REITs still and believe it or not, I think some of the utilities - electric ( Uranus ), gas (Neptune) at 1.5 book value and high yields are compelling.
HW: Electric yes, but watch out for Gas due to the Saturn/Neptune square mid-late 1998.
When investing (or building a portfolio), it is important to attempt to create it so that it is well-rounded and balanced. Therefore, looking at particular sectors, their current price, and respective PE ratios are an essential part of the mix. Regardless of what the stars say, interest rates tend to drive the market
HW: I don't disagree about model portfolios, but we have not posted ours here. I do disagree regarding your comment on interest rates. As an astrologer, I believe the stars DRIVE interest rates as well as influence corporations and stock prices.
<< I have done this for 6 years and I feel that I know what I am doing. I started with $13500 and now have a couple of million. I have to >> And I thought I was doing well at +140% since Feb 10th, 1997 with PropheTime: http://shoga.wwa.com/~ron1/Access02/Link_02.html
HW: Just One "killer" example of adding astrology to the trading mix. :)
Very interesting website. Noted your recommendations on buying gold. Noted the sharp drop in gold prices, long-term and short-term. Noted many central banks are talking about selling their gold long-term and Australia did. Noted the Leo (Sun-gold) opposition with Uranus in Aquarius, with Neptune opposition coming up. Not particularly helped by the trine to Saturn in Aires. Noted the problems my Leo friends are having. Noted you recommend believing the markets first.
HW: Note: I believe GOLD is a fundamental INTERMEDIATE term buy, with excellent risk/reward. The markets will let us know Christmas.
Please send your questions, comments or suggestions to Letters,
Tuesday & Friday, listen to our ABS radio program TRADING BY THE STARS
| Return To Main Menu |