© Henry Weingarten Last Updated:
Much of the following material has been serialized in
WALL STREET, NEXT
WEEK
and our subscriber
premium channels. This will next be updated
in May after our
11th Astrology and Stock
Market Seminar
May 14-17, 2004 in New York
City.
Notes: Hyper links
that are prefaced with a S:
are restricted toWSNW Subscribers.
This forecast was posted on our web site in
October in our premium channels for WSNW subscribers.
Many advisors suggest
investors fight the urge to be bearish and enjoy
the run-up in the stock market. I wonder what these same
advisors were advising in March and April 2000? While
the internal Stock Market astrology, as in 2003 is mixed, the
external risk potential is horrific! We consider the long term
economic fall out of the US Iraq invasion quite severe and
believe that global markets can retest or break their 2003
lows.
Stock selection is paramount and will count more than
sector rotation and even
stock market timing!
Given that the traditional "Buy and Hold"
investing strategy will continue to
under perform, we again recommend trading 50%
in "investing" portfolios in 2004.
TAKE/PROTECT PROFITS CONTINUOUSLY.
For 3 years we warned: LEARN
THE MARKET LESSONS OF 2000, BECAUSE
THEY WILL REPEAT IN 2003. Now that the
forecast is true, come June 2004, many investors may be
berating themselves with why didn't they sell when the Nasdaq
was circa 2000? Why didn't they learn their lesson in March 2000?
BOTTOM LINE:
DON'T BUY AND HOLD. THE
STOCK MARKET IS LIVING ON BORROWED TIME. I ADVISE KEEPING
A BALANCED AND DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO, ELIMINATE MARGIN DEBT
AND BE CASH RICH.
MARKET NEUTRAL INVESTING FOR EXPERIENCED INVESTORS
In order to sleep soundly
at night, I recommend a Hedge Fund style Market Neutral
Strategy in 2004. This involves both buying under valued and
selling short overvalued stocks. This is best done in industry
pairs as it involves the smallest risk, although the most work.
Alternately, stocks can be hedged against their individual sector
membership or the overall market: Buying a stock and selling its
sector or broad market index, or Selling a stock and buying its
sector index or the overall market.
If you are bullish, I would
recommend a long/short ratio of 2-1.
If you incline more to the
bearish camp as I do, then a long/short ratio of 1-2
is preferable.
There are five primary celestial and terrestrial phenomena affecting world events and global markets in 2004:
1. US DOLLAR REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE IN 2004
Everyone knows now that the US dollar
has already peaked. Smart money players
Warren Buffett and George Soros are making huge bets the dollar will
continue its slide to new lows all next year. Many currency
analysts predict a further 10% drop in the dollar's value versus major
currencies. US Treasury Secretary John Snow shocked
currency traders by stating that the U.S. government
no longer measures the dollar's strength by its market
value against the other major currencies. Instead, Snow
said "strong" refers to such aspects of the dollar as the confidence
it inspires in the public and its resistance to counterfeiting.
This plus the G7 call for more "flexible exchange rates, has most
benefited the Euro and Yen. as well as secondary currencies such
as the Canadian and Australian Dollars and gold. All investors
need to diversify their investments globally.
The average American has less than 5% of his
assets in foreign holdings. The decline in the
US Dollar's value has made foreign investments more attractive.
Stock prices are cheaper by most valuation measures:
price to earnings, price to sales and price to book.
Due to the November 8th 2003 Lunar Eclipse 2003, global interest
rates reversed course, first rising in Australia and then in the
UK. In 2004, we also expect US interest rates
to rise due to a lower US dollar and future
inflationary worries. Our US dollar Index Fair
Value has dropped to 88.80 with .85 to .82 increasingly possible
in 2004. One lurking possibility is that
it may become necessary for the FED to defend
the US dollar or that outright intervention from the US
Treasury in the currency markets may be necessary. However, Winter and
Spring 2004, we could also see the US dollar as high as .94-.95. If
so, this would be a MAJOR sell signal for us.
Our recommended US equity portfolios
international stock allocation has been
raised to 50%.
2. A WAR TIME ECONOMY: GUNS AND CAVIAR REDUX
3. THE END OF THE HOUSING BUBBLE
Housing, along with Commodities and physicals,
is now viewed as an Asset Class along
with Stocks, Bonds and Cash by many investors.
Positively, there is the enjoyment factor:
most woman would prefer to have an additional
100K in a home than in a portfolio. Housing
also appeals to safety concerns in times of
trouble, but home buying is cooling. Record low interest
rates are ending. Other negatives include the fact that
the ratio of home prices to home rental rates is
too high, while the value of individually owned residential
property to disposable income is at a 50 year high.
Classically, Real Estate weakens 12-24 months after
a market collapse. Thanks to the Fed, this did not happen when individual
stock prices returned to pre-1998 pricing. I
still see the probability of a housing drop of 10-35% [depending
on location and individual property] over the
next 6-18 months. In June 2003, Saturn entered Cancer.
Let's not forget what Saturn in Gemini (Communications)
did to Telecoms. Hopefully it will NOT be that bad:
Favorable tax treatment, low interest rates, along with
continuing demand could make this a slowing market
with a soft instead of hard landing before July 2005 when
Saturn leaves Cancer [home] for Leo. Either way,
buyers will benefit more than sellers.
Global Stock markets in 2004 will be determined largely by answering three questions:
Q1: How will Bush's military adventures affect Oil prices and help or hinder the War on Terror?
Q2: Who will be helped/hurt the most by the lower US dollar?
Q3: What P/e's will investors be willing to pay for modest corporate growth?
HOW HIGH IS UP? HOW LOW IS LOW?
VALUE WITH GROWTH
Capital Preservation
is again
most important for global investors; hence,
we stress caution. Previously, we recommended
an investment strategy paradigm
of BUY and HOLD Growth stocks with at
least reasonable valuations based
on current and future profits. International
money flows no longer exclusively favor
the US, with Asia, Europe and even emerging
markets garnering more global interest.
In 2004, both Value and Growth will periodically outperform
and under perform. Market timing will be the key.
Classic "Buy and Hold" is passé: Stock picking, more than
sector membership, and Market timing will
rule in 2004. Successful investing will
depend on knowing:
When all the
good news has already been factored
into the share price, at
what price is the valuation just too
high?
When all
the bad news has already been
factored into the share price,
at what price is the valuation too
cheap?
Any and all investing profits need to be protected against
future bear
assaults in 2004.
Trade more (50%
of portfolio)
and take/protect profits at 10%-20%
profit points for long term non-core
holdings.
LEARN THE LESSONS OF 2000, THEY REPEATED IN 2003 WITH EXCESSIVE SPECULATION:
1) Buy carefully
and when stock valuation becomes
super frothy again, SELL.
2) Be careful about owning
stocks that are “priced to perfection”,
they can only disappoint.
3) It is NEVER “different
this time.”
4) Ultimately, profits matter.
The Horoscope is a MAP of TIME and PLACE - here is a brief overview of
selected global markets:
Country risk is re-emerging as a corollary
to anti-globalization forces. Sophisticated
investors today are rightly concerned about
being overly invested in any one country or currency.
EUROPE - A stronger global
alternative
to the US
European stocks
have a 25% discount to valuations compared to stocks
in the United States and domestic demand is growing. Some exporting
companies' sales are being hurt by the dollar's drop against
the Euro. A further surge in the euro above 124 against the dollar
would hit some euro zone based export firms hard. Despite this,
on a global basis, Europe is still undervalued and more reasonably
valued.
NORTH AMERICA
- Traders
paradise
OTHER-
Opportunities
for savvy investors
ONLY .
We continue to advise caution for emerging
markets unless you monitor
them very closely. They "behave like rich-country ones
on speed, both up and down". It is very important for investors to
distinguish between high and low risk countries.
Current AFUND ratings on the
BIG Four Emerging Markets are: Brazil (Watch), China
(Wait), India (Hold) and Russia (Avoid). Later in
2004, the global investing
landscape may be dramatically
different.
WSNW subscribers should periodically review our S: AFUND GLOBAL 12 - for our favorite global blue chip long term investments.
LONGER TERM
2005: The fifth year of each decade has been positive since 1881. We see no reason at this moment to disagree with history.
March 29, 2006 is a Total Solar Eclipse. Also in 2006 Jupiter squares Neptune 1/28, 3/16 and 9/24.
2007: Jupiter Square Uranus: 1/22, 5/11, 10/9 and then in December 2007: Jupiter will be conjunct Pluto.
The low point of the nodal cycle is reached in 2008 and Pluto ingresses into Capricorn..
Jupiter conjunct Neptune in 2009:
5/27, 7/10, 12/21.
The next epic shifting planetary configurations in 2010/2011 of Jupiter conjunct Uranus AND Jupiter opposition Saturn as well as Uranus entering Aires and Neptune enters Pisces. ALL precede the December 21, 2012 Mayan end date.
I like to begin with one or more of the following 4 criteria:
A: CASH RICH, WELL MANAGED AND PROFITABLE,
B: UNLOVED BUT UNDERVALUED,
C: POSITIVE MOMENTUM AND MONEY FLOWS
D: GOOD HOROSCOPE OR IN AN ASTROLOGICALLY FAVORED SECTOR:
1) Jupiter in Virgo until Q4
when Jupiter enters Libra.
Winter/Spring
2004's favorite strategy will be Market Neutral
Hedging: Buying a strong stock while shorting an appropriate
index (SPX or Nasdaq), or Pairs Trading - buying
a strong company and selling a weak one in the same sector
usually makes money whether the market moves up, down
or sideways. Over the next few months, we will not so much
be investing as doing short term trades such as shorting Nasdaq
Internut-like fantasies.
1. The US dollar will fall still more, select Country I-Shares or Foreign Blue Chip companies to hedge:
3. S: DJIA FAVORITE 2005 stocks are American Express (AMEX) and surprisingly ATT (T). The latter I presume is due to a buy out, merger or new management strategy. Caterpillar (CAT) in December 2003, IBM and Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) will also be rebought in 2004 for long term buy and hold investment portfolio allocations. However, even Blue Chip stocks have to be traded, not "buy and held" for better than 10% returns in 2004. Our least favorite Dow Dog remains Eastman Kodak, whose days in the Dow is surely numbered.
BIOTECHNOLOGY: e.g. BBH and IBB or heavyweights Amgen
(AMGN), Cephalon (CEPH) and Genentech
(DNA) can be trading buys on strong pullbacks.
I prefer to invest in companies that have multiple
products in clinical development.
SUCCESSOR ENERGY:
e.g. Vestas and Gamesa.
Watch: FuelCell Energy (FCEL), Hydrogenics (HYGS),
Mechanical Technology (MKTY) and Quantum Technologies (QTWW).
NANOTECHNOLOGY: Watch: Veeco Instruments (VECO) and
FEI (FEIC).
*6. AFUND CLIENTS
Business
Astrologers know that
the best way to predict
the future is to create
it.
With strong
Disclaimers and with an informed but obviously
biased view, I
am doing my best to help create
investor wealth for client
companies we now consult for including
International
High Tech Industries
[IHITF] and Gallery (GARQF).
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2002 Market Forecast |
2001 Market Forecast |
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