© Henry Weingarten Last Updated:
Most of the following material has been serialized in
WALL STREET, NEXT
WEEK
and our subscriber
premium channels. Our next semiannual
update will be posted after our
11th Annual Astrology
and Stock Market Seminar
May 16-18, 2003 in
New York City.
Note: Hyper
links that are prefaced with a S: are
restricted to
WSNW Subscribers.
There are four primary celestial and terrestrial phenomena affecting world events and global markets in 2003:
1. US DOLLAR REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE IN 2003
Everyone knows now that the US dollar has already peaked.
While Europe's ongoing malaise and Japan's long suffering economy make
it possible that it could be a few months before the dollar drops more,
investors need to diversify their investments globally.
The average American has less than 5% of his assets in foreign holdings.
The inevitable decline in the dollar’s value makes foreign
investments more attractive. Stock prices are cheaper by most
valuation measures: price to earnings, price to sales and price
to book.
Intermediate term, we expect
interest rates to increase due to some economic growth,
a lower US dollar and future inflationary worries.
One lurking potential danger is that it may
become necessary for the FED to defend the US
dollar.
Our recommended US equity portfolios
international stock allocation is 25%.
2. JUPITER/NEPTUNE THEME: HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE?
Let the good times roll and will
it be back to "What ME worry?" The trend
of more realistic stock valuation from "new
economy" to more traditional levels that began with Jupiter/Saturn
conjunction in 2000 may become temporarily
lost with this new cosmic zeitgeist. Initially, it
was expressed by investors having MORE (JUPITER) ANXIETY (NEPTUNE):
Richard Berner, chief US economist
at Morgan Stanley, unknowingly made an incredibly accurate
astrological statement of this zeitgeist: [Brackets mine]
From the perspective of the economy,
uncertainty [Neptune] is the enemy [opposition]
of Growth [Jupiter]. Roughly just before
Neptune went direct October 20, it was More (Jupiter) Uncertainty
(Neptune).
October 10/11 we saw the one example of Expansion (Jupiter)
without Limits (Neptune) with a quick 20%+ rally.
Note: December 4, Jupiter went Retrograde and will return Direct on
April 4, 2003.
We previously spoke of more and better (Jupiter) Wine (Neptune). Today there is a global wine glut because of over planting and over exuberance, thinking that we were never going to have enough grapes. Remember, Neptune also co-rules OIL!
3. A WAR TIME ECONOMY: GUNS AND CAVIAR REDUX
4. THE END OF THE HOUSING BUBBLE
August 1, 2002 Jupiter left the sign of Cancer
[home] for Leo, the first of several astrological factors
that will loosen astrological underpinnings of the current
real estate bubble. Housing, along with Commodities and physicals,
is now viewed as an Asset Class along with Stocks, Bonds and Cash
by many investors. Positively, there is the enjoyment factor: most
woman would prefer to have an additional 100K in a home than in a
portfolio. Housing also appeals to safety concerns in times of trouble,
but home buying is cooling. Record low interest rates are soon ending.
Other negatives include the ratio of home prices to home rental rates
is more than 12% too high, while the value of individually owned residential
property to deposable income is at a 50 year high. Classically, the
Real Estate weakens 12-24 months after a market collapse. If individual
stock prices can return to pre-1998 pricing in the Fall of 2002, why
can't housing drop 10-35% [depending on location and individual property]
over the next 6-18 months? June 2003, Saturn enters Cancer. Let's
not forget what Saturn in Gemini, e.g. Communications did to telecoms.
Hopefully it will NOT be that bad: Favorable tax treatment along
with continuing demand could continue to help make this a slowing market
with a soft instead of hard landing.
Global Stock markets in 2003 will be determined largely by answering two questions:
Q1: How will Bush's Iraqi crusade affect Oil prices and help or hinder the War on Terror?
Q2: Who will be helped/hurt the most by the lower US dollar?
HOW HIGH IS UP?
2003 POSSIBLE TRADING RANGES
DJIA:
7240 to 10,660
NASDAQ:
1115-2135
VALUE WITH GROWTH
Capital Preservation
will no longer be quite as
important for global investors when investor's
fear fade away. It continues to be a time for growth
leadership. However, we advise caution and recommend
an investment strategy paradigm of
BUY and HOLD Growth stocks with at least reasonable
valuations based on current and future profits. Do not ignore
pension liabilities or the expensing of options in these calculations.
Moreover, international money flows
will no longer exclusively favor the US,
with Asia, Europe and even emerging markets garnering more
future global interest. However, note by the
second half of 2003, value will no longer under perform as in the first
half.
Classic "Buy and Hold" is passé: Stock picking , more
than sector membership and even Market timing will rule in
2003. Successful investing will depend on knowing:
When all the good news has already been factored
into the share price, at what price is the valuation
just too high?
When all the bad news has already been factored
into the share price, at what price is the
valuation too cheap?
Any and all investing profits need to be protected against
future bear assaults in 2003. We advise
against returning to past excessive speculation
as investor fear recedes.
Trade
more (30% of portfolio) and
take/protect profits at 15%-25% profit points
for long term non core holdings.
LEARN THE LESSONS OF 2000, THEY WILL REPEAT IN 2003:
1) Buy carefully and when stock valuation becomes
super frothy again, SELL.
2) Be careful about
owning stocks that are “priced to perfection”, they
can only disappoint.
3) It is NEVER “different
this time.”
4) Ultimately, profits
matter.
The Horoscope is a MAP of TIME and PLACE - here is a brief overview of selected global markets:
EUROPE - A global alternative to the US
NORTH
AMERICA -
Traders paradise
OTHER- Opportunities
for savvy investors
ONLY .
We continue to recommend caution for emerging
markets unless you monitor them very closely.
Later
in 2003, the global investing landscape
may be dramatically different.
WSNW subscribers should periodically
review our
S: AFUND GLOBAL 12
- for our
favorite global blue chip long term investments.
VALUE plus GROWTH IS
BEST and Trade for
short term profit 15-25% moves.
INTERMEDIATE TERM
The big cosmic paradigm is the three passes of Jupiter opposing Neptune that began in September 11, 2002 and ends June 3, 2003. Obviously this can be good news for both the biotechs and drug industry as well as for gaming stocks. We are looking to natural gas, wind power, media and entertainment sectors to outperform.
LONGER TERM
2005: The fifth year of decade has been positive since 1881. We see no reason at this moment to disagree with history.
March 29, 2006 is a Total Solar Eclipse.
December 2007: Jupiter will be conjunct Pluto.
The low point of the nodal cycle is reached in 2008.
This will be followed by Jupiter conjunct Neptune in 2009 and the next epic shifting planetary configurations in 2010/2011 of Jupiter conjunct Uranus AND Jupiter opposition Saturn preceding the December 21, 2012 Mayan end date.
I like to begin with one or more of the following 4 criteria:
A: CASH RICH, WELL MANAGED AND PROFITABLE,
B: UNLOVED BUT UNDERVALUED,
C: POSITIVE MOMENTUM AND MONEY FLOWS
D: GOOD HOROSCOPE OR IN AN ASTROLOGICALLY FAVORED SECTOR:
1) Jupiter in Leo
2) Jupiter Opposite
Neptune
Please note our past favorite trading strategy has been buying pre and post news pops due to companies slightly outperforming repeated earnings downgrades. This Winter/Spring our favorite strategy will be buying quality momentum stocks for short term positional trading..
Our first choice are cash rich global blue chips. These are companies that are prospering by gaining market share and buying "cheap" assets during this economic slowdown over small and midcaps. These are companies that tough out the near term and become far stronger in the long term. Our game plan is to invest conservatively, but due to recent high market volatility and increasingly compressed market cycles, we now advise trading all accounts more actively: an average of 50% of portfolio holdings in H1 2003. Intermediate and longer term European (and Asian) stocks may NO longer rise and fall fully in sync with US markets! This will happen more when the US dollar is generally recognized to be in a secular decline. WSNW subscribers should periodically review our S: AFUND GLOBAL 12 - for our favorite global blue chip long term investments.1. Expect a further drop in US dollar of 2-6%, select Country I-Shares or Foreign Blue Chip companies:
3. S: DJIA FAVORITE 2003 stocks, i.e. hold/buy on an intermediate-long term are Home Depot (HD), IBM and Johnson and Johnson (JNJ). We do not expect too much performance of Dow Stocks and Diamond Index (DIA) for Q1 2003, after early January. Once again, most Blue Chip stocks will still have to be traded, not "buy and held" for better than 10% returns in 2003. We would look to buy on good price points/times: American Express (AXP) [more H2], Eastman Kodak (EK) remains strong H1 2003, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) [especially H2], and United Technology (UTX).
APPLIED ROBOTICS: e.g. Int. Hi-Tech
Industries
(IHITF)* and ?
BIOTECHNOLOGY: e.g. BBH, IBB, Amgen
(AMGN) and Enzo Biochem (ENZ).
SUCCESSOR
ENERGY: e.g. Astropower (APWR)
and Vestas.
NANOTECHNOLOGY: ?
*6. AFUND CLIENTS
Business Astrologers know
that the best way to predict
the future is to create it.
With strong
Disclaimers and with an informed but
obviously biased view, I am
doing my best to help create investor
wealth for client companies
we now consult for including
International High Tech Industries
[IHITF] , Mountain
Province Mining
(MPVI) and all Globestar Capital
companies beginning with Screenphone
Corp in 2003.
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2001 Market Forecast |
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