2002 MARKET FORECASTS

FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY:
It is NOT WHAT you know, but WHEN you know it.

© Henry Weingarten Last Updated:

Most of the following material has been serialized in our newsletter WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK and our premium channels .              It will be updated publicly at our 10th Annual  Astrology and Stock Market Seminar   May 17-19, 2002 in New York  City.
Note:Hyper links that are prefaced with a S:, G: or P: arerestricted to WSNW Subscribers.                                                     

There are five primary celestial and terrestial phenomena affecting world events and global markets in 2002:


The key event of 2001 was 911 .  From a purely economic view, this horrible tragedy ironically had positive implications for many market sectors ranging from security and defense to construction.  This is/was primarily due to the economic stimulation and the relative unimportance for balancing the budget in2002. Without 911, a budget deficiet would have happened as both individuals and companies were underforming.  Furthermore, it forced an early capitulation, i.e. end of the Bear market, as stocks moved into stronger, instititutional hands. Thus after the First Saturn-Pluto opposition, we began repeating:
Now THERE IS LIGHT AT END OF THE TUNNEL Saturn-Opposition Pluto ends May 2002!
INVESTORS: FALL 2002 markets will be HIGHER than today.


DIFFICULT PROGRESS: CLIMBING THE WALL OF WORRY

Like many others we see a strong second half economy for 2002 and the markets. The question of how high is up, will depend on how low markets go in the Winter and Spring of 2002. Will they retest Fall 2001 lows, Spring 2001 lows or even the October 98 lows?         

Two short term positives for the markets are the longer term effects of  lower US interest rates (Don't Fight the Fed) and the post 911  spending programs. There is a well known tendency of markets to "climb the wall of worry" and we expect plenty of this (worry) coming up.  The cup is only half full as global economies deal with unemployment and additional bankruptcies follow through.

The profits from the Fall  2001 market rally need to be protected against future potential bear assaults. We advise against returning to past excessive speculation as investor fear recedes. To quote a recent Citibank  ad: “Being filthy rich is so 1999.” Junk bond defaults,   one prime example, are at a post 1929 depression high and will climb yet higher by Spring 2002. Still, the cup is half empty: stocks will perform better than cash AND bonds in 2002.

The latest or11th Fed rate cut this year to 1.75% was NOT needed and will only  damage the US dollar.  Any business that can’t make  money with 2% interest  rates, won’t even at 0%. You either have access to the capital markets or you don’t. The long struggle, aka economic recovery,  continues.

LM Ericsson statement accompanying its third quarter results saw the systems market falling by 10% in 2002 as a worst case scenario      for internal planning purposes, rather than a forecast. Torbjorn Nilsson, business strategy manager at Ericsson. "We expect further consolidation amongst operators. The largest will become even larger."
 –10% max and the BIG getting BIGGER are two key themes for early 2002. The minor note is the humbling of more former wunderkind stars ala Enron (ENE).

Global Stock markets in  2002/3 will be determined largely by answering four questions:
Q1: Who will energy prices help/hurt the most?
Q2: Who will the further US economic slowdown hurt and help?
Q3: Will Investors re-evaluate P/E lower to traditional levels or higher towards " new economy" levels?
Q4: Who will be helped/hurt the most by the lower US dollar?

Intermediate term, we expect interest rates to increase due to a lower US dollar and eventual inflationary worries in 2002/3. One lurking potential danger is that itmay become necessary for the FED to defend the US  dollar and that will  NOT be the cause for a major US stock market rally past DJIA 11,000.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Capital Preservation will no longer be as important  for global investors after early 2002. It will instead go back to the future or time forgrowth. Then we expect a change in leadership away from Value and back to Growth. However, we advise caution and recommend an investmentstrategy paradigm of  BUY and HOLD Growth stocks withat least  reasonable valuation based on current and future profits.  Remember,  international money flows will no longer exclusively favor the US, with Asia and Europe garnering future global   interest.           


HOW HIGH IS UP?
HOW LOW IS LOW?

2002 TRADING RANGES
DJIA: 8,800 to 11,660
                       NASDAQ: 1620/1680-2542/2820

VALUE WITH GROWTH

While we expect some to hope for a return to the "good ole days", we are not likely to see P/E of 100+ for many TMT stocks. Our advice is thesame as for 2001:
Trade more (25% of  portfolio) and take/protect profits at 15%-25% profit points for non-core long term holdings.
               

INVESTORS SHOULD BUY AND HOLD STOCKS WINTER/SPRING 2002 THAT ARE:
1) Profitable companies,
2) P/E under 20 TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications); less than 16-18 for others,          
3) Undervalued by 10% or more.


I GLOBAL INVESTING

  BUY CANADA, GERMANY & UK
ACCUMULATE ASIA & EUROPE
         
TRADE THE UNITED STATES
                                              
                                       

The Horoscope is a MAP of TIME and PLACE - here is a brief overview of selected global markets:

EUROPE - Relative strength gains in Euroland & Euro into 2002         


NORTH AMERICA - Traders paradise

ASIA/PACIFIC - Long term investment opportunities


OTHER- Opportunities for savvy investors ONLY .


We continue to recommend avoiding most emerging markets at least until Spring 2002.
Later in 2002, the global investing landscape  may be dramatically different. WSNW subscribers should periodically review our
S: AFUND GLOBAL 12 - for our favorite global blue chip long term investments.


 II TIMING
Traders believe "Making money in  the market is all about  Timing".   The "Buy And Hold" climate we've had in the US stock    market  is long PAST  HISTORY.   Since 2000  it is now a  "Market Timing"  and “Stock Picking” environment.  Markets reward best stocks that have Value AND Growth. However, market strategies will need to change as we look forward to the last Saturn opposition to Pluto in May 2002, to be replaced by a series of Jupiter-Neptune oppositions starting September 2002. Short term corporate profits are likely to continue to disappoint on the short side due to ruthless competition for much of the first half of 2002  Thereafter corporate profits for well managed and sufficiently capitalized companies may rise dramatically!                                                                                              

Despite the fact that we do live in interesting times, short term we repeat last year's mantra:
BORING IS GOOD and VALUE plus GROWTH IS BEST and Trade for short term profit 15-25% moves.
Old-line technology companies such as  Boeing (BA)  IBM,  Rockwell (ROK), Hitachi  (HIT) and United Technologies     (UTX) will be safer heavens than utilities, and generally outperform.                
  

SHORT TERM
We will be finishing the final pass of Saturn opposite Pluto that began August 5, 2001 on May 26, 2002. 1Q 2002     -  1.9%
2Q 2002     + 1.6%
3Q 2000   >+ 2  %

INTERMEDIATE TERM

The big new paradigm will be the three passes of Jupiter opposing Neptune beginning September 11, 2002 and ending June3, 2003.  On 9/11/2002, we have predicted a 200 point rally to celebrate the strength of the US resolve in the global war on terror.
Nasdaq is likely to both outperform AND underperform the DJIA depending on which months you are looking, i.e. more Traders Heaven.
May 26, 2002 will be a pivotal  month marking the beginning of the next market cycle.

Jupiter will oppose Neptune beginning September 11, 2002 and ending  June 3, 2003.  Obviously this will be good news for both the drug industry as well as for gaming stocks.  Also look to travel (cruises), natural gas, wind power, leisure ,media and entertainment sectors to outperform. 
Jupiter going into Leo August 1 will also cosmically assist the entertainment industry.  Also expect solar energy and fuel cells to begin to get more respect as they are targeted for mainstream America in 2004. It is an open question whether it will be American companies or foreign companies like Kyocera and Sharp that benefit most.  President Bush: are you listening?

The importance of the December  4th Solar Eclipse will bediscussed in our midyear update to be first presented at our 10th annual Astrology and Stock Market seminar and then later posted on website.

LONGER TERM

This is followed  by one pass of  Jupiter/Uranus in August of  2003, by which time electronic companies e.g. MC,  SNE, Samsung and PHG will be in heaven thanks to mass  HDTV.   Also around this time, interactive TV and Video on demand will become widespread, obviously helping AOL and MSFT, but others as well (tba).  However, we will also see in 2003 Saturn activating the US Sun.

December 2007: Jupiter will be conjunct  Pluto. The low point of the nodal cycle is reached 2008.  This will be followed         by Jupiter conjunct Neptune in 2009 and Jupiter conjunct Uranus in 2010.


III SECTORS
Over time, there will be increased focus on sector based rather than country based approaches to global investing.
Our three favorite post  millennium themes remain: Hydrogen/Solar, Robotics, and Wind/Water (2002/2003).
The old themes of Technology, Communications and Health Care will still matter naturally.
See Sector Coverage for 2002 Relative Sector Weighting updates.
WSNW subscribers: please note we update our 7 favorite 2002 industry sectors on our premium Silver posting area: S:COMMUNICATIONS , S:COMPUTERS , S: ENERGY , S: HEALTH CARES: MINING , S: REITS , and S:TRAVEL .            
Additionally,  2002/3 favorites sectorsinclude:         

IV STOCKS
Having my Moon in Libra, my Stock Selection is both:
TOP DOWN: country/currency, bourse/sector, individual stock and
BOTTOM UP : strong astrological and/or fundamental/technical indications.

I like to begin with one or more of the following 3 criteria:

   A: CASH RICH, not stock rich (Survival of the Fittest) 

   B:  UNDERVALUED            

   C: GOOD HOROSCOPE or in upcoming COSMIC SECTOR Theme:   

     1) Jupiter in Leo
     2) Jupiter Opposite Neptune (2002/3)

Please note our current favorite trading strategy has been buying pre and post news pops due to companies slightly outperforming repeated earnings downgrades. This Winter/Spring our favorite Investingstrategy will be buying quality undervalued stocks that have just fallen out of bed, e.g. DYN, HAL on bad news/sector association-our old fallen angel strategy.

BUYING FOR THE LONG TERM (May 2002 on) a 2/3 or 3/3 mixture of
1)  BUYING CASH RICH LEADERS  
2)  UNDERVALUED AND UNLOVED
3)  ASTROLOGICALLY  FAVORED STOCKS AND SECTORS    
   

Our first choice are cash rich global blue chips. These are companies that can prosper by gaining market share and buying "cheap" assets during an economic slowdown over small and midcaps.  These are companies that tough out the near term and become far stronger in the long term.  As in 2001, our game plan is to invest conservatively, but due to recent high market  volatility and increasingly compressed market cycles, we now advise trading all accounts more actively-  an average of 25% of portfolio holdings.  Intermediate and longer term European (and Asian) stocks will NO longer rise and fall fully in sync with US markets!  This will happen more when the US dollar is generally  recognized to be in a secular decline.
                                               
Six selected Investing  themes follow. For more and updates, WSNW subscribers   may visit our AFUND premium channels                                                                                                       

1.  Give expected drop in USdollar of 2-6%, select Country I-Shares or Webs) or Foreign Blue Chipscompanies:

2. We always prefer undervalued  stocks, especially  if coupled with a yield greater than the classic value buy signal of 5%, such  as Utilities like ConEd (ED) or Scottish  Power (SPI), or the best named REIT WRI (Weingarten Reality!).We also recommend stocks that are atleast 20% undervalued like ASD or American Standard, which have an added bonus of being potential M&A  acquistion candidates. Currently our favorites are out of favor stocks in the travel industry, e.g. MHX and FCH.                                                                                             

3. S: DJIA FAVORITE 2001 stock, i.e.hold/buy on an intermediate-long term on a relative basis was IBM. We bought and sold it twice in 2001. It  will be so again in 2003, so we plan on buying again on any serious weakness. We expect continued modest consolidation and performance  of  Dow Stocks and Diamond  Index (DIA) for most of 2002. Onceagain, most Blue Chip stocks will still have  to   be traded,  not "buy and  held" for much better than single digit returns in 2002. Two possible exceptions are Dupont (DD) and InternationalPaper (IP).  On weakness, we may also buy American Express (AXP), Boeing(BA), Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE)  and United Technology (UTX) if markets correct downward dramatically once again early 2002.                 

4.  MEDIA AND ELECTRONICS: PREPARE TO PROSPER
These are our two favorite sectors to buy and hold into 2003.
Our Consumer Electronics choices are:  SONY [SNE], SAMSUNG, PHILIPS [PHG] and Matsushita or Panasonic [MC]
Four Media brands to accumulate on weakness are: AOL, Disney (DIS), NY Times (NYT) and Yahoo (YHOO). All have strong potential growth after Q1 2002, accompanied by increasing advertising revenues.

5. FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES
Even before we became one of the first apple dealers in NYC, we historically have liked betting on emerging technologies.   This we recommend doing in a basket of stocks, and not paying too much of apremium over value for longer term holding in contrast to new related  trading.  WSNW subscribers can surf our  P: FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES post.
Our current three favorites sectors are:                            

APPLIED  ROBOTICS: e.g. Int. Hi-Tech Industries (IHITF)* , Robotic Vision (ROBV) and FANUC.  
BIOTECHNOLOGY: e.g  Celsion (CLN),  Imclone Systems (IMCL) and Trimerius (TRMS).               
SUCCESSOR ENERGY: e.g. Astropower (APWR) Nuvera (IPO: NVRA) and ???   

*6. AFUND CLIENTS
Business Astrologers know that the best way to predict the future is to create it.
With strong Disclaimers   and with an obviously biased view, I am  doing my best to help create investor wealth for client companies we now consult for, e.g. International High Tech Industries [IHITF]     


SinceMay 2, 1988 I have established a superior forecasting record primarily due to my knowledge of financial astrology. While not perfect as some critics would demand, my precision and accuracy is appreciated by many professional traders and investors.  As more of our forecasting is now private and contracted to money managers and institutional investors, it is my intention to have other financial astrologers and money managers contribute more on myweb site in the future.
Latest sample performance figures at AFUND Performance and VOLTrade .
Henry Weingarten

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