2002/3 MARKET FORECASTS

FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY:
It is NOT WHAT you know, but WHEN you know it.

© Henry Weingarten Last Updated:

Most of the following material has been serialized in WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK and our premium channels . This is our semiannual update from our 10th Annual  Astrology and Stock Market Seminar   May 17-18, 2002 in New York  City.
Note: Hyper links that are prefaced with a S: are restricted to WSNW Subscribers.                                                     

There are five primary celestial and terrestial phenomena affecting world events and global markets in 2002/3:


The key event of 2001 was 911 .  From a purely economic view, this horrible tragedy ironically had positive implications for many market sectors ranging from security and defense to construction.  This is/was primarily due to the economic stimulation and the relative unimportance in balancing the budget in 2002. Without 911, a budget deficit would have happened as both individuals and companies were underperforming.  Furthermore, it forced an early capitulation, i.e. end of the Bear market, as stocks moved into stronger, instititutional hands. Thus after the First Saturn-Pluto opposition, we began repeating:
Now THERE IS LIGHT AT END OF THE TUNNEL Saturn-Opposition Pluto ends May 2002!
INVESTORS: FALL 2002 markets will be HIGHER than today.


DIFFICULT PROGRESS: CLIMBING THE WALL OF WORRY

Like many others we see a stronger second half world economy for 2002 and the markets. The question of how high is up will depend on how low markets go in the Spring of 2002. Will they retest Fall 2001 lows, Spring 2001 lows or even the October 98 lows? However, we are now in a "market of stocks" where stock selection and sector picking as well as market timing of the stock market counts.        

Two short term positives for the markets are the longer term effects of  lower US interest rates (Don't Fight the Fed) and the post 911  spending programs. There is a well known tendency of markets to "climb the wall of worry" and we have seen plenty of this (worry) coming up.  The cup is only half full as global economies deal with unemployment and additional bankruptcies follow through.  However, today this is OLD NEWS!

The profits from the Fall  2002 market rally will need to be protected against future potential bear assaults in 2003.  We advise against returning to past excessive speculation as investor fear recedes. To quote a recent Citibank ad: “ Being filthy rich is so 1999. ” Junk bond defaults, one prime example, are at a post 1929 depression high and will climb yet highe this year. Still, the cup is half empty: stocks will perform better than cash AND bonds in 2002.

UNREALISTIC EXPECATIONS
OMG- Single Digit Growth?  “If my mutual fund won’t give me 25% growth, sell it.” Nokia reduced its sales forecast to rise between 5% and 10%.  It had earlier predicted 15% growth for 2002. That type of realistic, single digit growth is our Blue Chip benchmark. Low expectations lead to rallies. I enjoy positive surprises more than earnings disappointments.  However, NOK at 16 is not cheap and is expensive above 14.

Global Stock markets in  2002/3 will be determined largely by answering two questions:
Q1: Will Investors re-evaluate P/E lower to traditional levels or higher towards " new economy" levels?
Q2: Who will be helped/hurt the most by the lower US dollar?

Intermediate term, we expect interest rates to increase to 3% due to growth,  a lower US dollar and inflationary worries. One lurking potential danger is that it may become necessary for the FED to defend the US  dollar and that will  NOT be the cause for a major US stock market rally past DJIA 12,000.                                                                                                                        
"Buy and Hold" is passe. Stock picking and Market timing will rule in 2002/2003. Successful investing will depend on knowing: 
When all the good news has already been factored into the share price, at what price is the valuation just too high? 
When all the bad news has already been factored into the share price, at what price is the valuation too cheap?
                                                                                                                                                                   

Capital Preservation will no longer be as important for global investors as investor's fear fade away. It will instead go back to the future or time for growth. Leadership will now pass from Value to Growth. However, we advise caution and recommend an investment strategy paradigm of  BUY and HOLD Growth stocks with at least  reasonable valuation based on current and future profits.  Remember,  international money flows will no longer exclusively favor the US, with Asia and Europe garnering more future global  interest.           


HOW HIGH IS UP?
HOW LOW IS LOW?

2002 TRADING RANGES
DJIA: 8,800 to 11,660
NASDAQ: 1610-2552

VALUE WITH GROWTH

While we expect some to hope for a return to the "good ole days", we still find P/E's of 100+, e.g. Intel (INTC) unwaranted.for most stocks. Our advice is the same as for 2001:
Trade more (25% of  portfolio) and take/protect profits at 15%-25% profit points for non-core long term holdings.
               

INVESTORS SHOULD BUY AND HOLD STOCKS SUMMER/FALL 2002 THAT ARE:
1) Profitable companies,
2) P/E under 22 for Growth and less than 16 for Value,          
3) Undervalued by 10% or more.


I GLOBAL INVESTING

  BUY CANADA, INDIA & JAPAN
ACCUMULATE ASIA & EUROPE
         
TRADE THE UNITED STATES
                                              
                                       

The Horoscope is a MAP of TIME and PLACE - here is a brief overview of selected global markets:

EUROPE - Relative strength gains in Euroland due to increased value of the Euro into 2003         


NORTH AMERICA - Traders paradise

ASIA/PACIFIC - Long term investment opportunities in Japan and India


OTHER- Opportunities for savvy investors ONLY .


We continue to recommend caution for most emerging markets unless you monitor them very closely.
Later in 2003, the global investing landscape may be dramatically different.
WSNW subscribers should periodically review our S: AFUND GLOBAL 12 - for our favorite global blue chip long term investments.


 II TIMING
Traders believe "Making money in  the market is all about  Timing".   The "Buy And Hold" climate we've had in the US stock    market is long PAST HISTORY.  Since 2000 it is now a  "Market Timing" and “Stock Picking” environment.  Markets reward best stocks that have Value AND Growth. However, market strategies will need to change as we look forward to the last Saturn opposition to Pluto in May 2002 and June Solar Eclipse, to be replaced by a series of Jupiter-Neptune oppositions starting September 11 2002. Short term corporate profits disappointed on the short side due to ruthless competition for much of the first half of 2002  Now corporate profits for well managed and sufficiently capitalized companies may rise dramatically!                                                                                              

Despite the fact that we do live in interesting times, short term we repeat last year's mantra:
VALUE plus GROWTH IS BEST and Trade for short term profit 15-25% moves.
While "boring is good" or "dependable value" will shortly no longer outperform, we still see Old-line technology companies such as Boeing (BA)  IBM,  Rockwell (ROK), Hitachi  (HIT) and United Technologies  (UTX) as safe havens, and generally to outperform in Q3 and Q4 2002.                
  

SHORT TERM
We will be finishing the final pass of Saturn opposite Pluto that began August 5, 2001 on May 26, 2002 and the June 10 Solar Eclipse. The current Zeitgeist  is MIXED and CHOPPY. This means stock and sector rotation will count more than stock market timing! We see an intermediate term bottom in place before June 20, 2002.
Our Advice is step in buying this week and next month.  We will be fully invested by the end of June.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

The big new paradigm will be the three passes of Jupiter opposing Neptune beginning September 11, 2002 and ending June3, 2003.  On 9/11/2002, we have predicted a major (200 point?) rally to celebrate the strength of the US resolve in the global war on terror.
Nasdaq is likely to both outperform AND underperform the DJIA depending on which months you are looking, i.e. more Traders Heaven.
May 2002 will be a pivotal month marking the beginning of the next market cycle.

Jupiter will oppose Neptune beginning September 11, 2002 and ending  June 3, 2003.  Obviously this will be good news for both the biotechs and drug industry as well as for gaming stocks.  Also look to travel (cruises), natural gas, wind power, leisure, media and entertainment sectors to outperform. 
Jupiter going into Leo August 1 will also cosmically assist the entertainment industry. Expect solar energy and fuel cells to begin to get more respect as they are targeted for mainstream America in 2004. It is an open question whether it will be American companies or foreign companies like BP, Kyocera and Sharp that benefit most.  President Bush: are you listening?

We note both the total Lunar Eclipses in 2002 of May 16 and November 9 as well as the Solar Eclipse of November 23, 2003 as also pivotal to certain countries economies. The importance of the December 4th Solar Eclipse will be discussed in our 2003 Market Forecast..

Bush Progressed Mars into 2003 prominent, expansion on the war on terror.

ADVICE: TAKE/PROTECT PROFITS OVER THE SUMMER AND SELL INTO THE OCTOBER 2002 RALLY.
LEARN THE MARKET LESSONS OF 2000, BECAUSE THEY WILL REPEAT BY 2003.


LONGER TERM

This is followed  by one pass of  Jupiter/Uranus in August of  2003, by which time electronic companies e.g. MC, SNE, Samsung and PHG will be in heaven thanks to increased home theatre sales, flat panel TVs and eventually HDTV.   Also around this time, interactive TV and Video on demand will begin to develop more widely, obviously helping AOL and MSFT, as well as others (tba).  However, we will also see in 2003 Saturn activating the US Sun.

December 2007: Jupiter will be conjunct  Pluto. The low point of the nodal cycle is reached in 2008.  This will be followed         by Jupiter conjunct Neptune in 2009 and the next epic shifting planetary configurations in 2010/2011 of Jupiter conjunct Uranus AND Jupiter opposition Saturn!


III SECTORS
Over time, sector based investing is replacing country based approaches to global investing.
Our three favorite post  millennium themes remain: Hydrogen/Solar, Robotics, and Wind/Water (2002/2003).
The old themes of Technology, Communications and Health Care will still matter naturally.
See Sector Coverage for 2002 Relative Sector Weighting updates.
WSNW subscribers: please note we update our 7 favorite 2002 industry sectors on our premium Silver posting area: S:COMMUNICATIONS , S:COMPUTERS , S: ENERGY , S: HEALTH CARE S: MINING , S: REITS , and S:TRAVEL .            
Additionally,  2002/3 favorites sectors include:          DOWNGRADE:  
      * Defense

IV STOCKS
Having my Moon in Libra, my Stock Selection is both:
TOP DOWN: country/currency, bourse/sector, individual stock and
BOTTOM UP : strong astrological and/or fundamental/technical indications.

I like to begin with one or more of the following 3 criteria:

   A: CASH RICH, not stock rich (Survival of the Fittest)  

   B:  UNDERVALUED            

   C: GOOD HOROSCOPE or in upcoming COSMIC SECTOR Theme:   

     1) Jupiter in Leo
     2) Jupiter Opposite Neptune (2002/3)

Please note our current favorite trading strategy has been buying pre and post news pops due to companies slightly outperforming repeated earnings downgrades. This Spring/Summer our favorite strategy will be buying quality undervalued stocks that have just fallen out of bed, e.g. DYN, HAL, TYC, V on bad news/sector association-our old fallen angel strategy- recycled for short term positional trading..

BUYING FOR THE LONG TERM (May/JUNE 2002 on) a 2/3 or 3/3 mixture of
1)  BUYING CASH RICH LEADERS  
2)  UNDERVALUED AND UNLOVED
3)  ASTROLOGICALLY  FAVORED STOCKS AND SECTORS    
   

Our first choice are cash rich global blue chips. These are companies that can prosper by gaining market share and buying "cheap" assets during an economic slowdown over small and midcaps.  These are companies that tough out the near term and become far stronger in the long term.  Our game plan is to invest conservatively, but due to recent high market  volatility and increasingly compressed market cycles, we now advise trading all accounts more actively-  an average of 25% of portfolio holdings.  Intermediate and longer term European (and Asian) stocks will NO longer rise and fall fully in sync with US markets!  This will happen more when the US dollar is generally  recognized to be in a secular decline.
                                               
Six selected Investing  themes follow. For more and updates, WSNW subscribers   may visit our AFUND premium channels                                                                                                       

1.  Expect a further drop in US dollar of 2-6%, select Country I-Shares or Webs) or Foreign Blue Chip companies:

2. We always prefer undervalued stocks, especially  if coupled with a yield greater than the classic value buy signal of 5%, such as Utilities like ConEd (ED), Scottish  Power (SPI), Host Marriot (HMR) or the best named REIT WRI (Weingarten Reality!).We also recommend stocks that are at least 20% undervalued, which have an added bonus of being potential M&A  acquistion candidates. Currently our favorite out of  favor stocks are Biotechs (intermediate term) and Telecom (long term). Recently, we played the travel industry, oil and energy sectors for this investing theme.                                                                                             

3. S: DJIA FAVORITE 2001 stock, i.e.hold/buy on an intermediate-long term on a relative basis was IBM. We bought and sold it twice in 2001 and once in 2002. It will be so again in 2003, so we bought it again this Spring for the longer terms. We expect continued modest consolidation and performance of  Dow Stocks and Diamond  Index (DIA) for most of 2002. Once again, most Blue Chip stocks will still have to be traded,  not "buy and  held" for much better than single digit returns in 2002. We would look to buy on weakness Dupont (DD), International Paper (IP) as well as American Express (AXP), Boeing (BA), Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE) and United Technology (UTX) over the next month.                 

4.   MEDIA AND ELECTRONICS: PREPARE TO PROSPER
These are our two favorite sectors to buy and hold into 2003.
Our Consumer Electronics choices are:  SONY [SNE], SAMSUNG, PHILIPS [PHG] and Matsushita or Panasonic [MC]
Five Media brands to accumulate on weakness are: AOL, Disney (DIS), NY Times (NYT) Yahoo (YHOO) and Vivendi (V). All have strong potential growth in Q3 2002 on with increasing advertising revenues.  Two other tradeable picks in this sector to watch are Clear Channel Communications (CCU) and FOX.

5. FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES
Even before we became one of the first apple dealers in NYC, we historically have liked betting on emerging technologies.   This we recommend doing in a basket of stocks, and not paying too much of a premium over value for longer term holding in contrast to new related  trading.  WSNW subscribers can surf our  P: FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES post.
Our current three favorites sectors are:                            

APPLIED  ROBOTICS: e.g. Int. Hi-Tech Industries (IHITF)*  and ?   
BIOTECHNOLOGY: e.g. BBH, IBB or Amgen (AMGN), Given GIVN, Genta (GNTA) and Imclone (IMCL). The small micro cap and even more speculative choices we watch include Celsion (CLN), CALY, ENVG and STEM.           
SUCCESSOR ENERGY: e.g. Astropower (APWR) Nuvera (IPO: NVRA) and ?   

*6. AFUND CLIENTS
Business Astrologers know that the best way to predict the future is to create it.
With strong Disclaimers   and with an obviously biased view, I am  doing my best to help create investor wealth for client companies we now consult for including International High Tech Industries [IHITF] , Mountain Province Mining (MPVI) and Tremor Entertainment (TROR).   


SinceMay 2, 1988 I have established a superior forecasting record primarily due to my knowledge of financial astrology. While not perfect as some critics would demand, my precision and accuracy is appreciated by many professional traders and investors.  As more of our forecasting is now private and contracted to money managers and institutional investors, it is my intention to have other financial astrologers and money managers contribute more on myweb site in the future.
Latest sample performance figures at AFUND Performance .
Henry Weingarten

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