© Henry Weingarten Last Updated:
Most of the following material has been serialized in
WALL STREET, NEXT
WEEK
and our
premium channels
. This is our semiannual
update from our
10th Annual Astrology and Stock
Market Seminar
May 17-18, 2002
in New York City.
Note: Hyper links
that are prefaced with a S: are restricted to
WSNW Subscribers.
There are five primary celestial and terrestial phenomena affecting world events and global markets in 2002/3:
1. US DOLLAR DECLINE CONTINUING IN 2002/3
The long term secular US$ rally is now
clearly over despite the latest monthly trade deficit ONLY 316 Billion
dollars. We are close to our P1 target of 112; P2 108.
We expect to see the Euro .93-1.01 by 2003.
2. SATURN/PLUTO ENDS 2002
Our forecast
for a global economic slowdown and fears of recession
were well founded. However, our WSNW Mantra since
911 has been: "There is now light at the end of the tunnel
as this aspect ends May 2002."
As for
911
, one
of its effects was Saturn (sense of security) in opposition
(opposed by) Pluto (Terrorism).
3. JUPITER/NEPTUNE THEME: PREPARE TO PROSPER 2002/2003
Let the good time roll and will it be back to "What
ME worry?" The curent trend of more realistic stock
valuation that began with Jupiter/Saturn conjunction
in 2000 MAY become lost with this new zeitgeist shift. For
example, Jet Blue (JBLU) on 5/6 at 52 was three times greater than UAL
and 2/3rd's American Airlines (AMR). Better instead enjoy buying
at Christie May 31 at Rockefeller Center at their Wine auction [ruled
by Neptune
Christie's - Auction Calendar]
Two short term positives for the markets are the longer term effects of lower US interest rates (Don't Fight the Fed) and the post 911 spending programs. There is a well known tendency of markets to "climb the wall of worry" and we have seen plenty of this (worry) coming up. The cup is only half full as global economies deal with unemployment and additional bankruptcies follow through. However, today this is OLD NEWS!
The profits from the Fall 2002 market rally will need to be protected against future potential bear assaults in 2003. We advise against returning to past excessive speculation as investor fear recedes. To quote a recent Citibank ad: “ Being filthy rich is so 1999. ” Junk bond defaults, one prime example, are at a post 1929 depression high and will climb yet highe this year. Still, the cup is half empty: stocks will perform better than cash AND bonds in 2002.Capital Preservation will no longer be as important for global investors as investor's fear fade away. It will instead go back to the future or time for growth. Leadership will now pass from Value to Growth. However, we advise caution and recommend an investment strategy paradigm of BUY and HOLD Growth stocks with at least reasonable valuation based on current and future profits. Remember, international money flows will no longer exclusively favor the US, with Asia and Europe garnering more future global interest.
2002 TRADING RANGES
DJIA:
8,800 to 11,660
NASDAQ: 1610-2552
VALUE WITH GROWTH
While we expect some to hope for a
return to the "good ole days", we still find P/E's of 100+,
e.g. Intel (INTC) unwaranted.for most stocks.
Our advice is the same as for 2001:
Trade
more (25% of portfolio) and take/protect
profits at 15%-25% profit points for non-core long
term holdings.
INVESTORS SHOULD BUY AND HOLD STOCKS SUMMER/FALL
2002 THAT ARE:
1) Profitable companies,
2) P/E under
22 for Growth and less than 16 for Value,
3) Undervalued by 10% or
more.
The Horoscope is a MAP of TIME and PLACE - here is a brief overview of selected global markets:
EUROPE - Relative strength gains in Euroland due to increased value of the Euro into 2003
NORTH
AMERICA - Traders
paradise
OTHER- Opportunities
for savvy investors ONLY
.
We continue
to recommend caution for most emerging markets
unless you monitor them very closely.
Later
in 2003, the global investing landscape may be
dramatically different.
WSNW subscribers should periodically review
our
S: AFUND GLOBAL 12
- for
our favorite global blue chip long term investments.
Despite the fact that we do live in interesting times, short term
we repeat last year's mantra:
VALUE plus
GROWTH IS BEST and Trade
for short term profit 15-25% moves.
While "boring is good" or "dependable value" will shortly no longer outperform,
we still see Old-line technology companies such
as Boeing (BA) IBM, Rockwell
(ROK), Hitachi (HIT) and United
Technologies (UTX) as safe havens, and generally
to outperform in Q3 and Q4 2002.
INTERMEDIATE TERM
The big new paradigm will be the three passes of Jupiter opposing Neptune beginning September 11, 2002 and ending June3, 2003. On 9/11/2002, we have predicted a major (200 point?) rally to celebrate the strength of the US resolve in the global war on terror.
LONGER TERM
This is followed by one pass of Jupiter/Uranus in August of 2003, by which time electronic companies e.g. MC, SNE, Samsung and PHG will be in heaven thanks to increased home theatre sales, flat panel TVs and eventually HDTV. Also around this time, interactive TV and Video on demand will begin to develop more widely, obviously helping AOL and MSFT, as well as others (tba). However, we will also see in 2003 Saturn activating the US Sun.
December 2007: Jupiter will be conjunct Pluto. The low point of the nodal cycle is reached in 2008. This will be followed by Jupiter conjunct Neptune in 2009 and the next epic shifting planetary configurations in 2010/2011 of Jupiter conjunct Uranus AND Jupiter opposition Saturn!
I like to begin with one or more of the following 3 criteria:
A: CASH RICH, not stock rich (Survival of the Fittest)
B: UNDERVALUED
C: GOOD HOROSCOPE or in upcoming COSMIC SECTOR Theme:
1) Jupiter in Leo
2) Jupiter Opposite Neptune (2002/3)
Please note our current favorite trading strategy has been buying pre and post news pops due to companies slightly outperforming repeated earnings downgrades. This Spring/Summer our favorite strategy will be buying quality undervalued stocks that have just fallen out of bed, e.g. DYN, HAL, TYC, V on bad news/sector association-our old fallen angel strategy- recycled for short term positional trading..
BUYING FOR THE LONG TERM (May/JUNE 2002 on)
a
2/3 or 3/3 mixture of
1)
BUYING CASH RICH LEADERS
2) UNDERVALUED
AND UNLOVED
3) ASTROLOGICALLY
FAVORED STOCKS AND SECTORS
1. Expect a further drop in US dollar of 2-6%, select Country I-Shares or Webs) or Foreign Blue Chip companies:
3. S: DJIA FAVORITE 2001 stock, i.e.hold/buy on an intermediate-long term on a relative basis was IBM. We bought and sold it twice in 2001 and once in 2002. It will be so again in 2003, so we bought it again this Spring for the longer terms. We expect continued modest consolidation and performance of Dow Stocks and Diamond Index (DIA) for most of 2002. Once again, most Blue Chip stocks will still have to be traded, not "buy and held" for much better than single digit returns in 2002. We would look to buy on weakness Dupont (DD), International Paper (IP) as well as American Express (AXP), Boeing (BA), Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE) and United Technology (UTX) over the next month.
APPLIED ROBOTICS: e.g. Int. Hi-Tech
Industries (IHITF)* and ?
BIOTECHNOLOGY: e.g. BBH, IBB or Amgen (AMGN), Given
GIVN, Genta (GNTA) and Imclone (IMCL). The small micro cap and even
more speculative choices we watch include Celsion (CLN), CALY, ENVG
and STEM.
SUCCESSOR
ENERGY: e.g. Astropower (APWR) Nuvera (IPO:
NVRA) and ?
*6. AFUND CLIENTS
Business Astrologers know that the
best way to predict the future is to
create it.
With strong
Disclaimers
and with an obviously biased view, I
am doing my best to help create investor
wealth for client companies we now consult for
including
International High Tech Industries
[IHITF] , Mountain
Province Mining
(MPVI) and Tremor
Entertainment
(TROR).
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