2001/2 MARKET FORECASTS
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY:
It is NOT WHAT you know, but WHEN you know it.
© Henry Weingarten Last Updated:
Much of the following material has been serialized in our newsletter
WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK and our
premium channels. It was updated
publicly at our 9th Annual Astrology and Stock Market Seminar
May 17, 2001 in NewYork City. Note: Hyper links
that are prefaced with a S:, G: or P: are restricted to
WSNW Subscribers.
There are 5 primary celestial and terrestial phenomena affecting world
events and global markets in 2001/2:
- The Solar Eclipse on the Summer
Solstice June 21, 2001.
- Three Saturn Pluto oppositions: August 5 to May 26, 2002.
- E-DAY: January 1, 2002
Euro Currency Launch
- November 30, 2001, May 31, 2002,
MSCI index changes
- New Stock Exchanges (new Bourse
horoscopes) such as International Nasdaq and LSE alliance mergers.
Three Big Investing Ideas
1. MORE REALISTIC STOCK VALUATION (Jupiter/Saturn). This trend continues
from 2000.
- Intermediate term best performance will be value stocks (Saturn)
that also are growing (Jupiter).
- Lower P/E valuations, but still much higher than historic norms.
2. DOLLAR DECLINE ACCELERATING
IN 2001/2
The secular US$ rally is ending, having topped with three peaks, one in
May 2000, one 6 months later and finally (?) one now a year later . If
you liked $10 Oil, then you will love the Euro .85-88!
We expect to see 93-1.05 over 18 months
3. SATURN/PLUTO 2001/2002
Economic slowdown and fears of recession well founded. These aspects
plus new FASB rules forecast more failed mergers and corporate break
ups. Politically, expect even more anti-globalization protests.
The battle coming over Energy Conservation (Saturn) vs. Pluto (drilling,
nuclear energy)
Eliminating environment protection VS price caps VS
conservation and efficiency (Our choice).
" The U.S. needs to speed up its tax
cuts, the European Union should lower interest rates and Japan
must overhaul its banks to head off a global economic slump.
There is no need to panic, no need to be overly pessimistic. pre-emptive
early policy responses from the U.S., Japan and Europe are
needed. We are indeed now living in a globalized world, where
the slowing down is absolutely interconnected."
- Horst Koehler, manager director,
IMF
HW: We agree about Europe and Japan, but
as for the US, this is not the best policy. We need more R&D
corporate investment tax breaks, especially in successor energy,
and give homeowners $500 to $1000 tax credit for new energy efficient
appliances and insulation. Just watch the US economy perk up then. We
need 21st century leadership rather than 19th and 20th century
technological solutions.
Global Stock markets in 2001/
2 will be determined largely by answering three questions:
Q1: Who will higher energy prices help/hurt
the most?
Q2: Who will the continuing
US economic slowdown hurt and help?
Q3: Will Investors re-evaluate P/E to traditional
levels or remain at " new economy" levels?
The second half of 2001 will continue the trend to lower corporate profits.
Over time this will lead to lower expectations and/or price/earning multiples.
Intermediate term, we expect interest rates to steady and/or increase
due to a lower US dollar and eventual inflationary worries in 2002/3.
One potential danger is that it may become necessary for the FED to
defend the US dollar and that will NOT be cause for a major US stock market
rally. Hence, US Bonds and Bond Funds will no longer outperform and
should gradually be reduced into Bunds in asset allocation over the next
12 months.
The two positives for the markets are the longer term effects of
lower US interest rates (Don't Fight the Fed) and increasing the
limit of tax sheltered funds into the market. There is also the
tendency of markets to "climb the wall of worry" and we expect plenty
of this (worry) coming up.
Capital Preservation will continue to be
important for global investors in 2001 and into early 2002.
The new investment strategy paradigm of BUY, HOLD and SELL
demands more frequent portfolio reviews, diversification and more
frequent trading. International money flows will no longer
exclusively favor the US with Asia and Europe garnering global
interest.
HOW HIGH IS UP?
HOW LOW IS LOW?
2001 TRADING RANGES
DJIA: 8,800 to 11,660
NASDAQ: 1620-3336 [2200-3880]
VALUE WITH GROWTH
Just as stocks with 200 P/E are taboo now,
so too will the 100 P/E stocks be next year.
Last year's advice seems so distant and written for another time, another
market cycle. We don't expect a return to the
"good ole days", but several compressed market cycles, both up and
down with increasing sector rotation.
Our advice: Trade more (25% of portfolio) and
take or protect profits at 15%, 20% and 25% profit points for non-core long
term holdings.
INVESTORS SHOULD BUY AND HOLD STOCKS INTO
2002 THAT ARE:
1) Profitable,
2) P/E under
25 TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications); 20 for others,
3) Less than
10% over
Morningstar Value.
I GLOBAL INVESTING
BUY UK
& ASIA
ACCUMULATE CANADA & NORTHERN
EUROPE
TRADE THE UNITED STATES
The Horoscope is a MAP of TIME and PLACE - here is a brief overview of
selected global markets:
EUROPE - Relative strength
in North Euroland & Euro strengthening into 2002
- GERMANY - Blue Chips [EWG] outperform as German behemoths domestically
split up and merge/acquire globally. [Pluto/Uranus
in 2001 followed by Jupiter in 2002.]
- HOLLAND - Continues to be one of three favorite countries in 2001 with
Euro rally help. However, we may suggest some selling into strength as better
global opportunities arise.
- ENGLAND - Summer eclipse may be positive for England and Ireland. Our
view of the city changes for the better in 2002 and perhaps sooner depending
on future LSE horoscope alliance. Export companies will obviously benefit
from the cheaper pound, while those dependent on imports will suffer.
- AUSTRIA [EWO] - now a hold/protect and market perform (from outperform).
- EU EXPANSION countries, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Cyprus,
Slovenia and Estonia have been upgraded to Watch.
NORTH AMERICA - Traders paradise
- S: CANADA
- Invest here for increasing prosperity in 2001-2002! The Canadian
Dollar is a great bargain and will outperform the US Dollar in
2002.
- MEXICO - While certain international stocks e.g. CX have performed
well and continue to benefit from NAFTA, we prefer to wait until closer
to the end of the US economic slowdown in 2002. Unless a stock is likely
to be a takeover target like Banacci was by Citibank, YANQUIS STAY HOME!
- UNITED STATES - Still overvalued versus global counterparts. Select
cash rich dominant blue chips e.g. IBM, C will
outpeform, but many former investor favorites will disappoint. US
Bonds will be less attractive as the year goes on. The US Dollar remains
a ticking time bomb before January 2002: It is no longer as safe a haven
with new competition forthcoming from the EURO in 2001
and perhaps even gold. However, since one can trade stocks here for
10-25% appreciation/depreciation a day/week, this remains TRADERS
HEAVEN.
ASIA/PACIFIC - Long term investment
opportunities
- JAPAN - We were delighted when our five year wait for Japan to break
12,222. The Nikkei is now a long term buy to 16,000, especially when
the Yen is weaker than 122 [Fair value =115-118]. Naturally,
we prefer exporters that will benefit from cheap Yen e.g. Sony (SNE),
Matsushita (MC), Honda (HMC) and Kyocera (KYO). JAPAN
INC may become one of our favorite 2002 countries. Watch the effect
of the Summer solstice here on JAPAN INC.
- HONG KONG/CHINA - Political problems/potential violence in 2001!
Add to this, the fact that many of the mainland's industries are a mess
and China's horoscopes are "challenged", therefore we continue to recommend
AVOID. Like other Asian economies, Hong Kong has been
buoyed by surging US exports. As consumer spending slows down,
it will have a very negative effect there. Despite a good economy,
we would reduce exposure to Taiwanese markets unless fully compensated for
the extra risk. Further, Hong Kong, along with Singapore and
Malaysia will loseout from MSCI changes as most of the top 20 companies
in these countries have less than 50% float. Conversely, Taiwan
may benefit but not enough to compensate for potential "war like" conditions.
- KOREA- Buy select, non-bankrupt :), companies such as Samsung Electronics
(SSNGF). A MAJOR peace dividend is expected in late 2001/2002.
- INDIA- The most
money is still to be made by insiders as recent corruption scandals attest.
Furthermore, there are potential "issues" with Pakistan this summer that
advise caution. Buy computer, Telecom and pharmecuticals bargains only
if/when you find them.
- AUSTRALIA - We are mildly bullish for 2002/3 e.g. BHP due to [future]
appreciating Aussie dollar.
- NEW ZELAND- The Good news is mostly built in. Slowly distribute
NZ 40 2200 OB if you are there in size.
OTHER-
Opportunities for savvy investors ONLY
.
- ISRAEL - Israel's technology sector will continue to outperform given
its highly skilled labor force and favorable tax treatment. However,
it largely remains overvalued and bargains are still hard to come by.
Unfortunately, it is best to buy only when there is blood in the
streets, which is all too often these days.
- RUSSIA - If/when there is a rule of law, many attractive high risk/high
reward opportunities MAY present themselves next year.
- BRAZIL - With crisis, comes opportunity, especially for quality exporters
thanks to the cheap Reais currency. Accumulate on weakness only for
appropriate multi-year long term investment portfolios.
As long as it remains an open question whether a "soft" landing
can be engineered or whether a "hard" crash is inevitable
sooner or later, we continue to recommend
avoiding most emerging markets in 2001.
In 2002, the global investing landscape may be dramatically different.
See our 2002 Stock Market forecasts to be issued this Fall.
II TIMING
Traders believe "Making money in the market is all about Timing".
The "Buy And Hold" climate we've had in the US stock market
is long PAST HISTORY. In 2000/1 it gave to a "Market Timing"
and “Stock Picking” environment. Since May
2000, the new planetary theme became Jupiter/Saturn. This once
every 20 year pairing of the two major planets best rewards Value AND Growth.
Next we look forward to Saturn opposite Pluto from August 2001 to
May 2002 this will reward bean counting cost cutters with solvency,
while punishing off to bankruptcy court profliacy. Overall corporate
profits are likely to often disappoint on the short side due to ruthless
competition e.g. Dell's new corporate strategy.
Despite the fact that we do live in interesting times, intermediate term
we repeat last year's mantra:
BORING IS GOOD and VALUE plus GROWTH IS BEST
and now add Trade for short term profit 15-25% moves.
Old-line technology companies
such as Boeing (BA) IBM, Rockwell (ROK), Hitachi
(HIT) and United Technologies (UTX) will be continue
to be safe heavens and generally outperform.
Traditional safe heavens such as Real
Estate [REITS] and select Utilities remain good investments,
but the latter will give more sleepless nights.
SHORT TERM
We just finished Jupiter opposite Pluto
is May 6, 2001. This ends the past cycle in Energy.
The big new paradigm will be the three
passes of Saturn opposite Pluto are August 5 and November 2
in 2001 and May 26, 2002.
- Last year we asked "How many pieces can ATT, BT etc. split themselves
into?" Top prize was awarded to Candian Pacific (CP)
which plans a five-way split. Kudos to their astrological advisor.
- While bankruptcy attorney's will be in clover, look to accumulate temporary
employment service firms like Manpower (MAN) or Robert Half (RHI)
that will benefit from upcoming tough ecnomic conditons.
- Continued increased opposition to merger mania and globalization ala
World Bank and IMF wishes.
- Blocking of nuclear power and the argument of conservation and efficiency
vs price controls and the waving of environmental rules. Ironically, OPEC
is likely to withhold more supply due to Oil "glut" from reduced
demand.
- We foresee see between -2% and -5% economic decline (total) over 1Qtr
2001 benchmark. We WILL have a continuing economic slowdown this Summer.
This is likely to be a soft landing with small risk of extended recession
(hard landing). If there is an official recession its
beginning is timed by this.
- Watch security and defense to move to center stage. Consider yourself
warned and act appropriately.
The next key total eclipse of the Sun will take place on
June 21, 2001. By and large we believe this will be good for
some global stock markets, e.g. England/Ireland
and especially Japan. It potentially provides the Japanese PM enough
cosmic power to finally eclipse the past financial blockages
and move Japan into the 21st century. However, Mercury/Mars
unfortunately raises the possbility of increasing
violence and terrorism threats - Watch
INTERMEDIATE TERM
Nasdaq is likely to both outperform AND underperform
the DJIA depending on which months you are looking, i.e. more
Traders Heaven. Over the next 12 months, we believe tax revenues
for both individuals and corporations will disappoint budget surplus
calculators. May 26, 2002 will be a pivotal month marking
the beginning of the next market cycle.
LONGER TERM
Jupiter will oppose Neptune beginning September 11, 2002 and ending
June 3, 2003. Obviously good news for both the drug industry
as well as gaming industries. Also look to travel (cruises),
natural gas, wind power, leisure and entertainment sectors to
outperform. This is followed by one pass of Jupiter/Uranus
in August of 2003 by which electronic companies e.g. SNE and
PHG will be in heaven thanks to mass HDTV. Also at this
time, interactive TV and Video on demand will become widespread obviously
help AOL and MSFT, but others as well (tba). However, we will also
see in 2003 Saturn activating the US Sun.
December 2007 Jupiter will be conjunct Pluto. The low
point of the nodal cycle is reached 2008. This will
be followed by Jupiter conjunct Neptune in 2009 and Jupiter
conjunct Uranus in 2010.
III SECTORS
Over time, there is increased
focus on sector based rather than country based approaches
to global investing.
Our three favorite post
millennium themes remain: Hydrogen/Solar, Robotics, and
Wind/Water (2002/2003).
The old themes
of Technology, Communications and Health Care will
still matter of course.
See Sector
Coverage for 2001/2 Relative Sector Weighting updates.
Additionally,
2001/02 favorites sectors include:
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
- Defense/Safety*
- Education
- Exploration and Successor Energy
- Housing & Construction
- Leisure & Travel (2002)
- Food and Beverage
- Media (2002)
- REITS
- Staffing
- * A clear money manager favorite, but our SRI leanings do not incline
us to buy this sector for clients. This Saturn/Pluto theme may also be played
with stocks ranging from Checkpoint (CKP) retail anti-theft
to Internet security RSA Security (RSAS) and Checkpoint Software (CHKP)
to LoJak (LOJN). Non-SRI managers can accumulate BF Goodrich, (GR)
Rockwell (ROK) or Boeing (BA).
- Robotic favorites are FANUC, IHITF, ROBV.
- Jupiter entering Cancer in July 2000 will continue to help "boring"
consumer noncyclical (IYK) as food companies such as Ahold (AHO),
Brinker International (EAT), Dole (DOL), Hain (HAIN), Hansen (HANS),
Heinz (HNZ) and Whole Foods Market (WFMI). Other potential Cancer
themes include home builders Pulte (PHM) and Centex (CTX), or Home
Depot (HD) and Lowe (LOW), Extended Stay (ESA), Felcor (FCH) and ocean
hospitality such as Royal Carribean (RCL) and Club Med (CLMDY) as well as
packaging companies like Earthshell (Erth) and Kyocera (KYO).
- Select Diversified Energy companies such as BP and Norsk Hydro (NHY).
Danish windmill manufacturers, Vestas Wind Energy Systems (VWSYF) and NEG
Micon (NEGMF) especially in 2003 and solar Astropower (APWR) will
offer more than 30% growth annually. We are also looking for
opportunities to trading buy older energy technology
companies on big dips such as Sun, VLO, Parker Drilling (PKD),
Gulf (GOU), Sucor (SU), BP and RD.
Energy efficiency along with the cheap Yen will keep Honda (HMC)
and Toyota strong global leaders with strong profits.
- We still like SSS and WRI Reits as core long term holds in conservative
portfolios.
- The number three beverage and fastest growing is Water. Big Euro
food groups Dannone [DA] and Nestle [NSRGY] own the largest brands and
remain conservatively profitable. However niche players like Vermont Pure
(VPS) are also worth watching and drinking.
IV STOCKS
Having my Moon in Libra, my Stock Selection is both:
TOP DOWN: country/currency, bourse/sector,
individual stock and
BOTTOM UP : strong astrological and/or fundamental/technical
indications.
I like to begin with one or more of the following 3 criteria:
A: CASH RICH, not stock rich (Survival
of the Fittest) e.g. IBM, Citigroup (C)
B: UNDERVALUED using Business
Appraisal methodology e.g. Morningstar
C: GOOD HOROSCOPE or in upcoming COSMIC
SECTOR Theme:
1) Jupiter in Cancer
2) Saturn/Pluto opposition
3) Jupiter Opposite
Neptune (2002/3)
Please note we are no longer relying the fallen angels strategy- they have
already fallen! It has been replaced by our new favorite strategy:
BUYING FOR THE LONG TERM (May 2002 on)
a 2/3 or 3/3 mixture of
1) BUYING CASH RICH LEADERS
2) UNDERVALUED
3) ASTROLOGICALLY FAVORED STOCKS AND SECTORS
Our first choice are cash rich global blue chips (companies that can prosper
by gaining market share and buying "cheap" assets during an economic slowdown{e.g.
IBM, C ) over small and midcaps. These are companies that the tough
near term will make them stronger in the long term. As in 2000, our game
plan is to invest conservatively, but due to recent high market volatility
and increasingly compressed market cycles, we now advise trading all
accounts more actively- an average of 25% of portfolio holdings.
Short term, European (and Asian) stocks will rise and fall in sync
with US markets. However, later this year as the Euro appreciates (and the
Yen appreciates/depreciates?) and the US dollar is more generally recognized
to be in a secular decline, global outperformance will result in Euroland.
This is also true for Canada and parts of Asia to a lesser extent.
Five selected themes follow. For more and updates,
WSNW subscribers
may visit our AFUND
premium channels .
1. Give expected drop in
US dollar of 3-7%, select Country I-Shares or Webs) or Foreign Blue
Chips companies:
- Netherlands (EWN) : Euro strength Unilever (UL), Philips (PHG), Royal
Dutch (RD) and Ahold (AHO)
- Germany (EWG) : Euro strength -, Deutsche Bank (DTBKY) and Bertelsmann
(BTGGga.DE).
- Japan (EWJ): Yen weakness - Kyocera (KYO), Matsushita (MC),
Sony (SNE) and Honda (HMC)
- CANADA (EWJ): $CD strength - CIBC (BCM), Sucor (SU) and Sun Life (SLC).
- United Kingdom : BP Amoco (BP), Pearson (PRSNY) and Elan (ELN).
2. We always like undervalued stocks,
especially if coupled with a yield greater than the classic
value buy signal of 5% such as high yielding
S: REITs , e.g SSS and WRI.or we may buy non-aggressive
Utilities like Con Ed (ED) or Scottish Power (SPI).
3.
S: DJIA FAVORITE 2001 stock, i.e.hold/buy on
an intermediate-long term on a relative basis remains IBM. We expect
continued modest consolidation and performance of Dow Stocks
and Diamond Index (DIA). Most Blue Chips stocks have to
be traded, not "buy and held" for better than single digit returns
in 2001. Two exceptions are: Citigroup (C) and United Technologies
(UTX). On weakness, we may also buy Microsoft along with Boeing (BA),
Home Depot (HD) and General Electric (GE) if markets correct downward
dramatically once again.
- (1) The three most undervalued DJIA stock are
MO (worth $80), UTX (worth $97) and C (worth $66).
- (2) C is both undervalued and like IBM cash rich. It is well positioned
to take advantage of coming bad times and is finally beginning to achieve
synergy benefits of its past merger. JPM is an "avoid",
while AXP accumulate on weakness.
- (3) Microsoft (MSFT) while a cash machine is
both over valued and poorly managed. Negatives include lingering
government suits and likely additional product delays. Still,
astrologically it is a strong buy by Fall 2001.
- (4) Most likely replacement for Honeywell is
Cisco. ALL future bad news built in; any surprise MUST be therefore
be positive. AOL is the other popular DJIA replacement
choice but is uninspired. Emotionally, we prefer to sell it on strength
rather than buy it on dips intermediate term.
- (5) Macdonalds, like Home Depot, will benefit
from Jupiter in Cancer. MCD is worth buying under 27 for a 12-18 month price
target of 36.5 if you can stomach it. Competitor Wendy's offers better fast
food (according to their spokeperson Dave) and better stock value at similiar
stock pricing. Likewise, Lowe's (LOW) has been a far better
buy than Home Depot.
4. FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES
Since before we became one of
the first apple dealers in NYC, we historically have
liked betting on emerging technologies. This we recommend
doing in a basket of stocks and not paying too much of a premium
over value for longer term holding in contrast to new related
trading. WSNW subscribers can surf our
P: FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES post.
Our current three favorites sectors are:
S: APPLIED
ROBOTICS: e.g. Int. Hi-Tech Industries (IHITF)* , Robotic
Vision (ROBV) and FANUC.
BIOTECHNOLOGY: e.g Celsion (CLN) and StemCells
(STEM).
SUCCESSOR ENERGY: e.g. Astropower (APWR) Nuvera (IPO: NVRA) and Evergreen
Solar (ESLR).
*5. AFUND CLIENTS
Business Astrologers
know that the best way to predict the future is
to create it.
With strong Disclaimers
and with an obviously biased view, I am doing my best to help
create investor wealth for client companies we now consult for e.g.
International High Tech Industries
[IHITF] and Cancall Communications (Screenphone).
Since May
2, 1988 I have established a superior
forecasting record, primarily
due to my knowledge of financial astrology. While
not perfect as some critics would demand, my precision
and accuracy is appreciated by many professional traders
and investors. As more of our forecasting is now
private and contracted to money managers and institutional
investors, it is my intention to have other financial astrologers
and money managers contribute more on my web site in the
future.
Latest sample performance figures at
AFUND Performance and
VOLTrade .
Henry Weingarten
(c) 2000, 2001 Please read our
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